Tuesday, April 6, 2010

A Unique Situation


     The Montreal Canadiens find themselves in a very unique situation this summer, and it happens to be one that the media can't stop talking about, and many other teams likely envy. As the Canadiens close in on clinching a playoff spot, the talk is uniformly about which goaltender should be resigned or traded in the summer, or in fact if it would be more beneficial to keep them both for at least another year. Since the calendar changed over to 2010, and to some even before then, it is beyond clear that Jaroslav Halak is the man in goal this season. Price hasn't played terrible, he hasn't even been bad, in fact his save percentage would put him into the starting job on most NHL teams, but a combination of not being able to win games for a litany of reasons and Halak playing unbelievably brilliant has relegated him to the backup role for awhile at least.

     The idea of trading one of the two goaltenders has been bandied about all season, but I tend to agree with JT over on The H Does Not Stand For Habs, as she writes that even with the expected salary increase for Jaroslav Halak, the cap hit for Price may actually go down with an increase to his base salary, but no more rookie bonuses. She estimates his cap hit next season to be approximately $1-1.5 million, likely on a 1 or 2 year deal, similar to Tuukka Rask. It remains to be seen if Price's agent is a bit more savvy than Rask's but if that's what we can get Price for, trading either goalie at this point is absolute insanity. The going rate for a veteran backup in the NHL is around $1 million per season, so adding in another 500,000 in cap hit to have another year to look at these two goalies and solidify the future of the organization is one of the best deals in sports. Although I disagree with JT that we could keep both of them for 2-3 more year, 1 year more would be very doable and very beneficial.

     The question I have for everyone reading this however, is whether the media is correct in focusing our attention entirely on the goalies. Are they really our more pressing issue going into the off season? Personally, I don't think so. I've heard many people say that Halak should be the organization's #1 priority as soon as the season is over, and Price after him, followed by Plekanec. I find this to be a completely wrong way to look at things. Certainly the first thing Pierre Gauthier should  do is tender qualifying offers to all RFAs, including the goalies, but as far as priorities go among signing players I would rank both goalies behind Plekanec, Pouliot, and even Sergei Kostitsyn. My reasoning for this is that for all three of Plekanec, Pouliot and Sergei, we don't have a player in the organization who can step up and do their jobs. However with both goalies, although annoying and unadvisable, it would not be catastrophic to the team if either one left as long as the other was kept. Say for example that Price is signed to an offer sheet that isn't matched, the result is that we now will go into the season with an inferior backup, and we're stuck with a top end goaltending prospect in Halak, instead of two. Halak likely starts 65 instead of 55 games next year, and unless the unthinkable happens and he somehow turns into Jose Theodore, we're still solid.

     On the other hand, we certainly don't have another top 2 center in the organization to take the pressure off of Gomez, and the free agent market is barren. Keeping in mind that Plekanec is also an unrestricted free agent come July 1st, and he should absolutely be our #1 priority. Plekanec is also the player who will be taking up the most salary of all of our (hopefully) returning players, so signing him first to see where the club is at financially is paramount. Benoit Pouliot is also, at this point, irreplaceable within the organization. His size and scoring touch are both fairly unique among the Canadiens roster, and there is no one in Hamilton who is ready to take on his role. The only other player who may be ready to play a top 6 role on the team is another priority, and that's Sergei Kostitsyn. With his talent, tenacity, vision and defensive skill set, there's no better prospect in the Montreal system than Sergei Kostitsyn. Although he started out the season in Jacques Martin's doghouse, and still has trouble getting time on the powerplay, Sergei has become a defensive specialist playing on the third line with Moore and Moen. He plays a ton on the penalty kill and regularly lines up against the opposition's best players at even strength. Tom Pyatt may be able to adequately replace Sergei on the defensive side next season, but offensively he's not even close. Having a player or two with the ability to score on your third line as made the Canadiens much more difficult to play against in the second half.

     I don't want anyone to think that I don't value the goalies, because I do believe that of any one player on a hockey team the one who has the most control of the outcome is always the goalie, this is likely why the Vezina Trophy and Jack Adams Trophy are routinely handed out to personnel on the same team. All I'm saying is that even if we get screwed in the offseason in regards to one of our goaltenders, we happen to have another young goalie who has the ability to be a top 10 goaltender in this league. Clearly it is preferable to keep them both, but it's just more important to make sure we have the irreplaceable pieces signed before we worry too much about the tenders.


Images courtesy of habsinsideout.com/Montreal Gazette

Monday, January 11, 2010

Weighing Expectations

I've been trying all year to weigh my expectations when it comes to young PK Subban. As soon as he began to dominate the World Junior Hockey Championships in December of 2008 the mouths of Habs fans everywhere began to salivate. Many began to boast that we'd stolen the next Bobby Orr in the second round, while others cautioned not to overrate someone just because he was drafted as a Canadien. Some even went so far as to say he was a sure bust because of his lack of defensive skills in his own zone. For me I saw PK has a can't miss prospect, not yet NHL ready but when he is, will be a super star or near it for many years. However like all people with strong opinions I was slightly worried about how he would fair against tougher competition in the AHL. Halfway through the season both Subban and the Bulldogs are buzzing under the tutelage of Guy Boucher. Is PK Subban the next Bobby Orr and poised to take the NHL by storm at any moment? No, but he is likely the best player (not goaltender) drafted by the Canadiens since Tomas Plekanec, and the best defenseman since Andrei Markov.


Offensively Subban is exactly as reported by scouts. As a rookie PK Subban is the highest scoring defenseman, and 5th overall in rookie scoring with 9 goals, 18 assists and 27 points in 39 games. Even more impressive is that Subban is 2nd overall in scoring among defensemen in the AHL, only one point being Jonas Junland of Peoria. Subban is also tied for 1st overall in goals among all AHL defensemen. He's not one to pass up chances either, Subban happens to be tied for 38th overall in shots on goal in the AHL as well. This is all despite a fairly slow start for PK that saw him get only 3 assists his first 10 games, 6 points over the first 17, and only one goal to speak of over that period. The vast offensive improvement after this really speaks to how well Boucher has gotten Subban to adjust to the professional level.


Defensively coming into the season was where many a naysayer balked at PK Subban as a prospect. "He's too raw in his own zone" was the most common criticism. These criticisms were in spite of Subban leading the Belleville Bulls in plus/minus last season with a +47 mark over just 56 games. Many credited the powerhouse Belleville Bulls for his obscene numbers and the lack of defensive play at the junior level. Well it just to happens that Subban is second in the AHL in plus/minus this season with an amazing +22 after just 39 games. He was 1st for awhile before having an off game against Milwaukee where he went -3. I fully expect him to be 1st in plus/minus before long again as his play has been fantastic since mid-November.


Another knock on Subban coming into the season was that he was a soft player. Well his 45 penalty minutes put him near the top of the team on the Bulldogs, and indicate that he's maturing physically with several roughing calls and even a fight. In fact thus far in the season Subban's most impressive game was likely on December 31st against Detroit's farm team the Grand Rapids Griffins as he put up a goal, 2 assists, with 2 shots, a fight and a massive +4.


This kid is a damn good hockey player. He has the skills and attitude to be a superstar in the NHL and I can't see any reason why he won't be. I'm happy that Montreal is not treating PK the same way they have with Latendresse and Pacioretty in bringing them up too soon. I would like to see Subban stay in the AHL for the rest of this season as well as most of next year at the least to get him seasoned before breaking in as an NHL rookie. With dimensional speed and skating ability, an extremely solid yet average sized frame and offensive instincts similar to Mike Green of the Capitals, this kid is for real and I'm done holding back my excitement for him as a prospect.

Friday, December 11, 2009

NHL Officiating and Chris Lee

Brace yourselves ladies and gentlemen as I believe this may be a long post. I was fortunate enough to attend last night's game against the Penguins at the Bell Centre in the best seats I've ever had. From right behind the Canadiens' bench I had a perspective I've never had before, unfortunately the game ended with a blown call on the part of Chris Lee and he was showered with the most merciless booing I've ever heard, or taken part in from the 21,273 plus those in luxury boxes who attended. The game ended in such frustrating fashion that I had to sleep on it before I started to right because I felt like this would come off as a whining piece from a poor sport instead of a well-thought-out article from a concerned fan, which is what I intend to present. As frustrating as that game was however, the reaction was so strong that for me at least, I knew it wasn't about just this game, and I believe it was the same feeling for most of the others in attendance, and the million or so Canadiens fans who were swearing at their televisions.

So far this season Montreal is 15-15-2 despite losing its best player before the first game of the season was over, and its second best scorer and winger 13 games ago. We've also had a variety of injuries plaguing the team over the entire 32 game schedule thus far. Having this record despite these obstacles leads me to believe that we have a very good team. 7 of the 15 regulation losses were by one goal, so this seems to support my view as well. Add to this that the Montreal Canadiens also have the fewest powerplay chances per game in the league, and the 4th most penalties called against them per game and you have to wonder how exactly we're getting scoring from this team at all. Every team faces obstacles during the season, but thus far the only team I see as comparable in the injury situation is the Edmonton Oilers, although they have 16 more powerplays than their 108 (7th least in NHL) times short handed. Initial reaction by those outside the Canadiens fan base is likely that the Canadiens are undisciplined while the Oilers are not. So a Pat Quinn team is more disciplined than a Jacques Martin team? Really? I can't fathom how this is possible.

The three teams that are averaging more penalties against per game this season than Montreal's 4.3125 are the Carolina Hurricanes, the Philadelphia Flyers and the Anaheim Ducks. It's interesting to me that these teams have been the worst three worst teams in the NHL over the last 10 games or so (although Florida and Columbus have worse records, Columbus' struggles have been almost entirely due to goaltending and Florida was not predicted to be a contender this season so I don't see their struggles to be as bad as these three teams). The Ducks and Flyers are both known to play a rough style trading off the penalties they get for the intimidation the infractions created. All three were expected to be cup contenders coming into the season, so frustration can also set in leading to bad plays, but what's the excuse for the Canadiens being in this group, and how do they compare? Montreal hasn't played Anaheim yet so that comparison is out, so let's look at the other two.

Against Carolina, in Montreal, we were ahead in chances after two periods after dominating the play in the second period. However despite even play in the third where Montreal tied the game, both calls went against the Canadiens. Then in overtime, a double minor against Spacek to give Carolina a 5-3 advantage in penalties. While from my memory I don't think any of the calls against us could be argued very well, especially Spacek's, I'm sure that under pressure for most of the last 40 minutes of regulation that a struggling and desperate team like Carolina likely got away with a ton of calls, especially as without Pitkanen their defensive corps is very slow and therefore likely to resort to illegal plays.

Against Philadelphia, in Montreal, the game was pretty listless as neither team really showed up. The game was even in penalties and called pretty fairly, both teams were allowed to play the game, letting a lot go. That was however until Montreal had a lead with a couple minutes left, when Josh Gorges was called on a phantom tripping penalty by Mike Leggo to give the Flyers an advantage for the rest of the game. This has been a startlingly frequent trend this season, it blew up on us against Washington the week before in a game we deserved to win that ended up a shootout loss. That game ended with the Flyers having a 4-3 advantage in penalties. Not exactly damning, but still not great. Keep in mind that we played Philadelphia at the height of their crap streak, a game after they had a 9 minute penalty kill that led to a blow out for Washington.

So facing the teams that draw the most penalties in the league, we can't seem to get a break. Are we really that bad? As I previously stated I don't believe this to be true, so what's going on here? Some interesting ideas have been raised, like the lack of a strong and persistent forecheck from the Canadiens means less sustained pressure, and therefore less of a chance to draw penalties. This idea sounds like a good explanation, but I don't like it based on what I've seen personally. We clearly don't have the strongest forechecking in the league, but the line of Pacioretty - Metropolit - Moen especially has demonstrated that they can create sustain pressure on the forecheck and draw defenders into hooking, holding and tripping, it just rarely gets called. Some have said that due to a player like Lapierre being known as an agitator that penalties regularly never get called when someone does something to him, and Plekanec's increasing aggression as well as dirty play at times is having the same affect. This also sounds like a good one, but from what I've seen in my life watching the NHL, it's rarely the guy who makes the first dirty play that gets called, it's always the retaliation, and there's been a lot of uncalled retaliation against both players. Pure lack of discipline can explain why we're getting calls against us more often, but I'm not inclined to believe it, and I'm certainly not inclined to believe that it could account for the disparity of being shorthanded 44 times more than having the advantage.

Of course at this point there's the group of people that come out and say Gary Bettman hates Canadian teams, and none more than the Canadiens and is therefore giving the refs directives to call the games against the Canadiens. This kind of thinking is neither true, nor possible. There is no reason the Bettman or anyone involved to call the game in a way that hurts specifically Montreal. Would I believe that referees are asked to be a bit more lenient to the sunbelt franchises that are struggling to make a profit with losing franchises in terrible economies? Maybe, but again this is bordering on conspiracy theory talk and there's been no tangible, coherent evidence presented that I've seen to make me believe it. It also doesn't hold up to the facts to say that the refs hate the Canadiens. As pointed out by frequently frustrating but intelligent poster Chris, last year we had the 2nd most powerplays in the league, and the year before that we had a positive differential of 32 more powerplays than penalties against over 82 games. This year is clearly an anomaly for us. So if it isn't coming down from above, what's happening.

Referees have a difficult job, especially at the NHL level. The game is fast and no matter what they're hated and harassed. Because it's such a difficult job it makes it a lot easier to compartmentalize certain plays in your head and much like a goalie, react to the familiar, muscle memory if you will. From what I've seen watching hockey my whole life it takes a lot for a small player to draw a penalty. It seems like whenever someone under 6 feet tall is knocked over, it's attributed to the player either being weak or diving. This is especially evident if the player who knocks the smaller guy down is a big player. The is very similar to what some on the internet sarcastically dub "Pronger physics", as to how he's allowed to constantly elbow people in the face viciously, or hit them in the head and rarely if ever get suspended because he's taller than most players. Players like Daniel Briere don't help by being one of the most frequent divers in the NHL. Considering that Montreal is only small among it's top 6 forwards as compared to the rest of the league, and we have some massive bodies on the back end and on the bottom two lines, this shouldn't account entirely for the lack of drawing penalties, but there's more to the story.

Ever since Bob Gainey acquired Scott Gomez, and even more so since Cammalleri and Gionta were signed, the media has been repeating ad nauseam that this team was pint sized and way too small to compete in the NHL. I've heard it mentioned at least once between either OTR or Sportscenter every single week day this year. If you think this kind of repetition has no affect then I invite you to look into how propaganda works in politics from communist Russia to separatist Quebec. This idea of Montreal being a small team, despite the average height and weight of the team being above the NHL average, has gotten into the minds of every ref in the NHL, even the good ones. It's not something that has anything to do with Montreal, and it's not on purpose, but it's really hurting Montreal. It's become so ingrained around the league that we're a small team that even players who aren't small, like the Kostitsyns, Pacioretty and Moen are abused often without getting a call.

This is made even more dire because the opposite is also true about taking penalties. When a small players knocks over a big player, most refs in any hockey league will assume an illegal infraction has taken place. This isn't about favouritism or a conspiracy to destroy the great history of the Montreal Canadiens, it's about a subconscious assumption that all referees share to make their jobs a little more simple, which has ended up hurting the Canadiens big time so far this season. I don't blame the refs for this, but let's be honest here, this is inexcusable. Something has to be done instead of letting something innocent plague the team the rest of the season. Bob Gainey or Jacques Martin need to either say something to the director of officiating, or if that doesn't work, play the mind games like Ken Holland and say something in the media. There will be a fine, no doubt, but it needs to be done. Better yet, new owner Geoff Molson, who has a bit more clout as an owner, can rock the boat by addressing the media if speaking in private to NHL head honcho's doesn't work.

To illustrate how important this could be, with our current powerplay efficiency we would add 8 or 9 goals if we had drawn as many powerplays as penalties. With this team being involved in 9 one goal losses included our shootout losses, imagine how 9 extra goals could change the standings. Even if only 4 (half) of those ended up in a game where we lost by one in regulation, 4 more points this year would put us one point behind Boston for 5th in the Eastern conference. It would also make the Canadiens an even team in goals for and goals against with 91 each way. That's a big difference, especially in how the Canadiens are viewed around the league, one that needs to be recognized by Canadiens management, and we need to start playing the game off the ice as well as people like Ken Holland do.

CHRIS LEE

Now that my rational argument is done, it's time for me to say what I've wanted to say all day. Chris Lee needs to be fired by the NHL, or demoted to the AHL where he can't ruin games that matter. You can tell the NHL doesn't consider him to be a good ref due to the lack of playoff games he's refereed in his career, which is a whopping 4 since 1999. Was last night the worst game I've ever seen officiated? No. It probably isn't even the worst game I've seen Chris Lee officiate, but it's going to be remembered for a long time because the one really bad blown call happened at the worst possible time. Chris Lee will say he lost sight of the puck, even though the puck was out of site on many goalmouth scrambles around Carey Price all night and he refused to blow the whistle, and he was clearly out of position so it would make more sense to wait until he was IN position to make the call. Unfortunately the NHL has made it against league rules to speak negatively of the officials, the response being at least a $10,000 fine for coaches. I believe this rule has given an ego of being untouchable to many referees in the game today.

But this isn't why Lee should be fired, the bottom line is that he's an awful official. It was clear all game that he's more concerned about controlling the game than he is about paying attention. After Plekanec got in Malkin's face last night and they took coincidental minors, Matt Cooke started harassing Plekanec after every whistle. The most glaring of which was a blatant spear in the face with the butt of his stick which likely wasn't shown on television as it was right as the game was going to commercial break. The spear was right in front of Chris Lee, who was directing traffic instead of paying attention to his surroundings. It's true that whenever he referees a game with Montreal there seems to be a controversy, but whether he hates the Canadiens or not is irrelevant, he plays his favourites in every game and he's terrible. Every hockey fan that I know that keeps track of refs thinks Chris Lee hates their team. That's a big sign that he blows calls way too often. It's time to let Mr. Lee officiate at a level where he can keep up with the play, maybe Atom A?

ON THE DISALLOWED GOAL

The NHL needs to wake up and explain why the ref saying that he was meaning to blow the whistle is somehow enough of an excuse to disallow a goal that resulted from the puck being loose. It happens all the time, and one of the responses that I hear from referee apologists is that refs are human and humans make errors. Let them make errors, but on this kind of play there should be video review. We use it on every other kind questionable goal, but for some reason the NHL in its usual draconian fashion refuses to take a little bit of power away from the referees. Well if they're human and make mistakes, why don't we have checks and balances to make sure the right call is made? It's a simple review, much simpler than any others. If the goalie covers the puck at all, then it's no goal. If the whistle blew before the puck goes in the net, no goal. Last night Fleury made no attempt to cover the puck, which he admitted in a post-game interview, because he didn't know where it was. The puck slid between his blocker/stick along his right pad and out to Scott Gomez in front of the net before he knocked it in the net. The puck hit the mesh, and halfway back out of the net you hear the whistle go. If this play could be reviewed that would have been a goal without any doubt. Whether Chris Lee lost sight of the puck while he was out of position, not doing his job properly would be irrelevant, and the right call would have been made. It's so simple, but it won't be done because the NHL refuses to be proactive. What if this had been in the 7th game of a playoff series? Granted because it's the playoffs Chris Lee wouldn't be officiating, but many refs blow these kinds of calls. It's time to start making the correct call instead of the human call.

Second image courtesy of habsinsideout.com/Montreal Gazette

Wednesday, November 25, 2009

A Man Reborn

A lot of people have already done so, but I think it is time I officially give Tomas Plekanec some major credit this year. Those who communicate with me on a regular basis know I like Plekanec and have been impressed with him this year, but I haven't given him the kudos he's deserved yet.

Plekanec came into this year as an after-thought in my opinion. I thought after last year and how low his confidence was that he would be a poor excuse for a second line center, but boy was I wrong. After watching a couple preseason games I praised Gionta for making Plekanec look good and possibly lighting a fire under his butt, but again, I was totally wrong. Tomas Plekanec is his own worst critic, and that translated into him working his tail off this summer to be a better player. He came into camp in the best shape of his life and ready to prove himself all over again.

It has been talked about all season how Plekanec is playing better than he ever has, how he's become his own player after Kovalev's departure, but to understand how much better Plekanec has been this season I just want to look at one simple statistic; assists. Tomas had a terrible year last year but still managed 20 goals, very impressive for someone who's struggling, but only 19 assists over 80 games. For a guy penciled in as a #2 center coming into the season 19 assists is insanely low, so fans were right to be upset with his game. Over the offseason I questioned how good of a playmaker Plekanec is, thinking that perhaps a dominant powerplay and Kovalev's one good year in Montreal artificially inflated his statistics in 07-08. Tomas has quashed these thoughts in dramatic fashion, in fact he already has 19 assists this season, in 24 games. That means as far as passing goes, he's producing at almost FOUR times the rate as last year. Read that again if you don't believe it. What makes this even more amazing is that before tonight against Columbus, he hadn't played a full game with anyone who could really help him produce. He did most of his work with struggling linemates and on the powerplay.

If you're not already blown away by how well Tomas Plekanec has been passing the puck, allow me to throw out some comparisons. Plekanec is currently tied for 6th in the entire NHL in assists. Players who he happens to be tied with include Anze Kopitar, who's been lights out this season, Martin St. Louis, one of my favourite players and playing with Steven Stamkos, and Nicklas Backstrom, who happens to play with some guy you may have heard of named Alexander Ovechkin. While being tied with Kopitar and St. Louis is very impressive and certainly puts Plekanec in the elite level of playmakers in the league, the one that truly stands out to me is Backstrom. Plekanec has managed, without stable linemates, on an offensively inept (to this point) Montreal Canadiens team, to be tied with one of the best playmakers in the NHL in assists. He's managed to be tied with the guy who sets up the best goal scorer in the NHL. If that isn't amazing, I don't know what is.

Tomas Plekanec is the exact reason why players who have off seasons need to be given a second chance. He wants to play in Montreal and it shows. In analyzing just one aspect of his game I think anyone can tell that we need to keep Tomas long term. Let's hope that Bob Gainey feels the same way.

Tuesday, November 24, 2009

Habs Inside/Out Summit 2009

I had the privilege of partaking in the annual Habs Inside/Out fan summit this past weekend, and I can't recall a weekend where I had quite this much fun. It was great to put faces to names, although slightly nerve racking at the beginning because you don't know who's going to be there. Perhaps you meet up with someone you've had a heated argument in the past (Hello Tommy B!), and it might be awkward, but all that quickly falls away. Within minutes everyone sees each other without the vague tone of text, and communication becomes clear. We're Habs fans, and we all want the same thing, wins.


On Friday it seemed like everyone was a little nervous about the outcome of the weekend, a back to back with Washington and Detroit surely spelled disaster for a team with so much inconsistency and so many injuries, but the boys pulled off an unlikely win in Washington, and the confidence was flowing. Luckily for many fan's livers, even Marc-Andre Bergeron turned in a pretty solid performance against Washington.


On Saturday a tour of the Bell Centre, where many of us sat in Mike Boone's chair, was followed by a few drinks at Ye Olde Orchard Pub, and a ton of Habs stories shared by some great fans that I feel very privileged to have met in person. And in true Habs Inside/Out fashion the true stories soon gave way to a challenge, of who could MAKE the best stories. For example what is the REAL reason why Sergei Kostitsyn missed the bus in preseason, the more absurd the better. And if that doesn't catch your fancy, then who on Habs Inside/Out is Chris Chelios' illegitimate love child?


It was also an honour to meet Dave Stubbs, although unfortunately I wasn't able to stay at Hurley's long enough to meet some of the others who contribute to the site like Mike Boone and Chris Aung-Thwin. These guys give us some great topics to talk about, and despite what many say about the moderators of the site, they do their best to keep the site civil and that's a good thing. I don't think any other NHL team has a website that functions as well as ours for discourse among so many fans, and it's awesome to have it provided to us by these gentlemen.


After a rough first period there was a sour mood at the Bell Centre on Saturday, but thanks to the team rallying around a solid performance by Price, a new 1st line emerged 9 seconds into the 3rd period as Cammalleri converted on a dandy drop pass by the awakened Andrei Kostitsyn. All of a sudden, and in true Habs fan form, the Bell Centre was rocking. A short time later Kostitsyn made yet another perfect pass to Cammalleri, which tied the game. Unfortunately we couldn't tie the Vancouver Canucks' record of 9 straight OT and SO victories, but we stole a point when all seemed lost. We were proud of a Canadiens team that was very depleted with injuries, so there were no hard feelings. In fact I think I almost went nuts when we tied it, as evidenced by this!


In closing I'd like to give a big thanks to Ian Cobb, who organized this summit and worked his tail off to keep up with the young guns. You did a great job Ian, thanks for a perfect weekend! I'll leave you all with this today:

To you with failing hands we throw the torch; be yours to hold it high