Weighing Expectations

I've been trying all year to weigh my expectations when it comes to young PK Subban. As soon as he began to dominate the World Junior Hockey Championships in December of 2008 the mouths of Habs fans everywhere began to salivate. Many began to boast that we'd stolen the next Bobby Orr in the second round, while others cautioned not to overrate someone just because he was drafted as a Canadien. Some even went so far as to say he was a sure bust because of his lack of defensive skills in his own zone. For me I saw PK has a can't miss prospect, not yet NHL ready but when he is, will be a super star or near it for many years. However like all people with strong opinions I was slightly worried about how he would fair against tougher competition in the AHL. Halfway through the season both Subban and the Bulldogs are buzzing under the tutelage of Guy Boucher. Is PK Subban the next Bobby Orr and poised to take the NHL by storm at any moment? No, but he is likely the best player (not goaltender) drafted by the Canadiens since Tomas Plekanec, and the best defenseman since Andrei Markov.

Offensively Subban is exactly as reported by scouts. As a rookie PK Subban is the highest scoring defenseman, and 5th overall in rookie scoring with 9 goals, 18 assists and 27 points in 39 games. Even more impressive is that Subban is 2nd overall in scoring among defensemen in the AHL, only one point being Jonas Junland of Peoria. Subban is also tied for 1st overall in goals among all AHL defensemen. He's not one to pass up chances either, Subban happens to be tied for 38th overall in shots on goal in the AHL as well. This is all despite a fairly slow start for PK that saw him get only 3 assists his first 10 games, 6 points over the first 17, and only one goal to speak of over that period. The vast offensive improvement after this really speaks to how well Boucher has gotten Subban to adjust to the professional level.

Defensively coming into the season was where many a naysayer balked at PK Subban as a prospect. "He's too raw in his own zone" was the most common criticism. These criticisms were in spite of Subban leading the Belleville Bulls in plus/minus last season with a +47 mark over just 56 games. Many credited the powerhouse Belleville Bulls for his obscene numbers and the lack of defensive play at the junior level. Well it just to happens that Subban is second in the AHL in plus/minus this season with an amazing +22 after just 39 games. He was 1st for awhile before having an off game against Milwaukee where he went -3. I fully expect him to be 1st in plus/minus before long again as his play has been fantastic since mid-November.

Another knock on Subban coming into the season was that he was a soft player. Well his 45 penalty minutes put him near the top of the team on the Bulldogs, and indicate that he's maturing physically with several roughing calls and even a fight. In fact thus far in the season Subban's most impressive game was likely on December 31st against Detroit's farm team the Grand Rapids Griffins as he put up a goal, 2 assists, with 2 shots, a fight and a massive +4.

This kid is a damn good hockey player. He has the skills and attitude to be a superstar in the NHL and I can't see any reason why he won't be. I'm happy that Montreal is not treating PK the same way they have with Latendresse and Pacioretty in bringing them up too soon. I would like to see Subban stay in the AHL for the rest of this season as well as most of next year at the least to get him seasoned before breaking in as an NHL rookie. With dimensional speed and skating ability, an extremely solid yet average sized frame and offensive instincts similar to Mike Green of the Capitals, this kid is for real and I'm done holding back my excitement for him as a prospect.

The Sagas of Max Pacioretty and Sergei Kostitsyn

Two of our Montreal Canadiens have taken very different paths this year. I clearly don't have the experience to question Jacques Martin, but I do have some objections to the way things have gone down.

Max Pacioretty has been the golden boy for the Canadiens in this year's training camp. He's worked hard over the summer, packed on some muscle and come into camp ready to compete. This has some fans delirious with excitement over his potential, and thrilled that he's pencilled into the top line on the Canadiens alongside Gomez and Gionta, but I'm not one of them. Max is a great prospect, a level headed kid with loads of talent and a projectable frame, but he's 20 years old. As you can see in his TSN page that I linked to, he only managed 9 goals between the AHL and NHL last year in 71 pro games. They didn't record his shooting percentage in the AHL, but in the big leagues it was a whopping 5.26%. Now it's extremely obvious that we have to give Patches the benefit of the doubt because he was a rookie, but in the interest of comparison, Tom "stone hands" Kostopoulos had a shooting percentage of 6.61% last season. It's clear that Montreal wants Max to be a goal scoring power forward, but in order to get there Max needs to develop his shot in the AHL. I'm very sure of this because despite playing top line minutes with talented linemates and diminished competition, Max was unable to convert a single time in the preseason. It's not all negative obviously, or he'd be in Hamilton already, his work along the boards has been great, and he's shown he has the wheels to keep up with Gomez and Gionta. But his puck control is still not great, and he shows how green he is in the offensive zone when he has a scoring chance. He seems to get nervous and in that category Max hasn't impressed me. If he does stay in the NHL this season, at least Martin has made the right decision to make him a top six forward, because playing 3rd and 4th line minutes while splitting time in the pressbox a la Carbo is terrible for the development of such a young player. I'm still high on Max's long term potential, but it pains me to see the Montreal organization make the same mistake over and over. Promoting people too young leads to the 2008-09 seasons of Price, O'Byrne, and Sergei Kostitsyn. I hope I'm dead wrong that this is a mistake, and Pacioretty lights it up, but the part of me that doesn't think with my heart says there's no way Pacioretty can compete with other top line forwards in the NHL at this point, not to mention top tier defenders.

Sergei Kostitsyn's fate this season is much different. Coming into camp rehabbing off season surgery Sergei was rumoured to be out of shape. However when Sergei was finally cleared to play, contrary to what many Habs fans would want you to believe, he played alright for a first game back against Ottawa the night we got blown out 6-1. The next day Sergei missed the team bus to Quebec City, as he was apparently stuck in traffic. My first reaction was to excuse this but Sergei has lived in Montreal most of the last 2 seasons, he should have compensated for traffic like every other player. Once in Quebec City however he played excellent against the Bruins. Lining up on the third line with David Desharnais he was one of the best players on either team. He was skating swiftly getting into confrontations and winning puck battles. It seemed like he'd woken up and came to play. After being scratched for the game against the Penguins Sergei was called out during practice for not being in the right position, which was also caught on video. Despite being reamed out by the coach, Sergei was back in the lineup against the Bruins the next game, and once again was one of the better players on the ice. Again playing most of the game on the third line, his first shift in a top 6 role he and Tomas Plekanec caught Tim Thomas sleeping off a faceoff and Sergei banging in a goal. It seemed that despite playing well in two straight games the writing was on the wall that Jacques Martin didn't like Sergei's attitude, and Sergei wasn't buying into the system well enough to stick with the big club. However when Sergei was sent down was awkward timing, as it was right before a team building retreat in Caledon, Ontario. Perhaps the coaching staff felt that his bad attitude would have a negative impact on the team building excercises, but to me it seemed like the lazy way out. Instead of recognizing the talent Kostitsyn has and attempting to adjust his attitude personally, Martin shifted the responsibility to Guy Boucher in Hamilton. It's also a possibility that Martin was sending a message to the rest of the team that bad attitudes won't be tolerated, but it doesn't sit well with me. A short time later Sergei Kostitsyn refused to report to the Bulldogs, and through a representative (not identified but likely Don "I constantly move my clients and I'm a money grubbing asshole" Meehan) informed Bob Gainey that he wanted to be traded out of Montreal. While I think Sergei was treated slightly unfairly this year in the WAY he was sent down, especially since Pacioretty did not earn his spot, and Gregory Stewart had a terrible camp until his last few shifts, I have to ask the question, who does he think he is? Sergei is a talented 22 year old player, but demanding a trade after being sent on a very obviously temporary trip to the minors at his age? Give me a break. I find this incredibly hard to take because I really like Sergei as a player, his style is rough, a little dirty and he has a great nose for the net, not to mention great vision. But Max Lapierre faced a similar though less harsh in timing demotion two years ago, but he never batted an eyelash. He took it like a man, worked his ass off in Hamilton until the Canadiens had no choice but to bring him back up. I'm disappointed in you Sergei. And this is a fan of yours speaking.

As for what will result from this trade request, I think Gainey hinted during his interviews today as to what the outcome could be. Most importantly to me Gainey didn't seem to angry about it. This tells me that he understands that Sergei is still a young, overemotional person who's passion sometimes gets in the way of making proper decisions. Gainey also stated that he doesn't see this trade request as a top priority. Bob knows how the NHL works, and he isn't going to trade Sergei when his value is as low as it could possibly be. Despite what TSN would have you believe with Bob McKenzie giving him advice on the air, this isn't a rookie GM we're talking about here. You could see in Bob's veiled smile that he already knows exactly what's going to happen here. Eventually Sergei is going to calm down, he'll report to Hamilton and play well, probably on the first line with Maxwell, and if his attitude adjusts he may even wear the CH again this very season, although I'm sure the fans at the Bell Centre will give him a nice round of boos to start. Worst comes to worst, once Kostitsyn starts to play better in Hamilton, Bob will package him in a trade at some point in the season for something he thinks he needs to add to the team.

As for those who think this situation is unique to Montreal, and that management is somehow to blame in entirety, pointing out all the prospects Montreal has lost to supposed "mismanagement", Ilja Zubov of the Senators has done the exact same thing as Sergei Kostitsyn today. Upon being sent down to Binghamton, Zubov demanded a trade, and he doesn't even have the questionable production in the big leagues that Sergei has! So we can stop being down on the Habs for imaginary reasons, and look forward to how the season may unfold. Let's hope that this small drama will be the only off ice issue we have to look at in 2009-10.