Weighing Expectations

I've been trying all year to weigh my expectations when it comes to young PK Subban. As soon as he began to dominate the World Junior Hockey Championships in December of 2008 the mouths of Habs fans everywhere began to salivate. Many began to boast that we'd stolen the next Bobby Orr in the second round, while others cautioned not to overrate someone just because he was drafted as a Canadien. Some even went so far as to say he was a sure bust because of his lack of defensive skills in his own zone. For me I saw PK has a can't miss prospect, not yet NHL ready but when he is, will be a super star or near it for many years. However like all people with strong opinions I was slightly worried about how he would fair against tougher competition in the AHL. Halfway through the season both Subban and the Bulldogs are buzzing under the tutelage of Guy Boucher. Is PK Subban the next Bobby Orr and poised to take the NHL by storm at any moment? No, but he is likely the best player (not goaltender) drafted by the Canadiens since Tomas Plekanec, and the best defenseman since Andrei Markov.

Offensively Subban is exactly as reported by scouts. As a rookie PK Subban is the highest scoring defenseman, and 5th overall in rookie scoring with 9 goals, 18 assists and 27 points in 39 games. Even more impressive is that Subban is 2nd overall in scoring among defensemen in the AHL, only one point being Jonas Junland of Peoria. Subban is also tied for 1st overall in goals among all AHL defensemen. He's not one to pass up chances either, Subban happens to be tied for 38th overall in shots on goal in the AHL as well. This is all despite a fairly slow start for PK that saw him get only 3 assists his first 10 games, 6 points over the first 17, and only one goal to speak of over that period. The vast offensive improvement after this really speaks to how well Boucher has gotten Subban to adjust to the professional level.

Defensively coming into the season was where many a naysayer balked at PK Subban as a prospect. "He's too raw in his own zone" was the most common criticism. These criticisms were in spite of Subban leading the Belleville Bulls in plus/minus last season with a +47 mark over just 56 games. Many credited the powerhouse Belleville Bulls for his obscene numbers and the lack of defensive play at the junior level. Well it just to happens that Subban is second in the AHL in plus/minus this season with an amazing +22 after just 39 games. He was 1st for awhile before having an off game against Milwaukee where he went -3. I fully expect him to be 1st in plus/minus before long again as his play has been fantastic since mid-November.

Another knock on Subban coming into the season was that he was a soft player. Well his 45 penalty minutes put him near the top of the team on the Bulldogs, and indicate that he's maturing physically with several roughing calls and even a fight. In fact thus far in the season Subban's most impressive game was likely on December 31st against Detroit's farm team the Grand Rapids Griffins as he put up a goal, 2 assists, with 2 shots, a fight and a massive +4.

This kid is a damn good hockey player. He has the skills and attitude to be a superstar in the NHL and I can't see any reason why he won't be. I'm happy that Montreal is not treating PK the same way they have with Latendresse and Pacioretty in bringing them up too soon. I would like to see Subban stay in the AHL for the rest of this season as well as most of next year at the least to get him seasoned before breaking in as an NHL rookie. With dimensional speed and skating ability, an extremely solid yet average sized frame and offensive instincts similar to Mike Green of the Capitals, this kid is for real and I'm done holding back my excitement for him as a prospect.

Show Kostitsyn Patience!

Seems like everyone is ready to give up on not just Sergei Kostitsyn these days, but his slow-starting brother Andrei as well. He's become the new whipping boy for the team in the press, as well as among a large section of the fans. Despite not apologizing for the false report of criminal activity last year, the Francophone portion of the media haven't cut him any slack either. To be fair, Andrei really isn't doing himself any favours with 1 goal and 3 assists over 12 games, but to run a 24 year old top 10 draft pick out of town in his 3rd full NHL season is just not smart.

Kostitsyn has the unfortunate tag of being a top pick in the highly coveted 2003 NHL Entry Draft, and even worse, the guy picked right after him is Jeff Carter, who scored 46 goals last season. This leaves a sour taste in the mouths of Habs fans over what could have been. Many are bitter that despite producing many solid NHL players for the last 9 or so drafts, we have yet to bring in and keep a super star. It's for this very reason however, that I think it's very unwise to get too down on our Belorussian who's on the big club.

It's easy for everyone to see that Andrei Kostitsyn is very talented, he's a great skater, he's physical, and he has one of the best wrist shots I've seen in the NHL. When watching Kostitsyn it's easy to see a game-breaker in the future, but many don't believe he'll ever hit his potential. I'd like to illustrate a parallel here that might change some minds.

I think it's fairly accepted that while AHL experience is good, NHL experience is much more valuable, especially to European born players. Because Jeff Carter was picked right after Kostitsyn, he's often the most lamented miss by Gainey since he came aboard. Well Carter came into the NHL earlier than Kostitsyn, so I think it's necessary that we look at the first few years in the NHL for both of them and see if there's a massive difference in production.

Jeff Carter

1st season [05-06] GP - 81, G - 23, A - 19, P - 42, +10, Shots - 189, Sh% - 12.17

A very solid rookie year, breaking the 20 goal barrier at a young age and showing promise defensively as a +10 on a pretty good team. Played against secondary defenders as the Gagne - Forsberg - Knuble line drew the other team's top defense pairings most nights.

2nd season [06-07] GP - 62, G - 14, A - 23, P - 37, -17, Shots - 215, Sh% - 6.51

A slight regression offensively on a team that took a nosedive. Lingering ankle injury surely hampered performance. Took a lot more shots with more responsibility, but shooting % took a massive nosedive. Defensive play likely looks worse than it is as Philadelphia is the worst team in the league.

3rd season [07-08] GP - 82, G - 29, A - 24, P - 53, +6, Shots - 260, Sh% - 11.15

Big jump in goals as injury woes are put behind, but a fairly large regression in assists. The regression and injury problems of Carter and Richards made overzealous new GM Holmgren sign Daniel Briere to a massive contract to shore up the center position after Forsberg was traded. Defensive play looks a lot better as the team improves by leaps and bounds. Took slightly less shots per game, but to greater effectiveness. Learning to pick his spots.

4th season [08-09] GP - 82, G - 46, A - 38, P - 84, +23, Shots - 342, Sh% - 13.45

With Briere injured Carter takes the opportunity to break out offensively. A massive improvement in every category, firing more shots to even greater efficiency. Steps into elite status in the NHL. Makes a lot of Montreal fans very angry.

Andrei Kostitsyn

1st season [07-08] GP - 78, G - 26, A - 27, P - 53, +15, Shots - 156, Sh% - 16.67

A very solid rookie season. Matches Carter's 3rd year in points in his first year, while playing better at even strength and shooting less. Played on one of the best lines in the NHL in the last half of the season with Kovalev in Plekanec. Most reviews of Kostitsyn are entirely positive, with the one suggestion that he shoot much more to take advantage of his powerful wrister. 3 more goals, 8 more assists, than Carter's respective rookie season while playing against top defenders.

2nd season [08-09] GP - 74, G - 23, A - 18, P - 41, -7, Shots - 169, Sh% - 13.61

A noticeable regression in all categories except shots. A head injury to start the year slows him down for quite awhile. After going on an offensive tear in mid-season a "scandal" breaks in the news involving him and his little brother, and his play drops off big time. Numbers also suffer as the entire team struggles offensively as compared to the season before, and chemistry doesn't seem to exist.

Preaching Patience

Everyone is all over Kostitsyn right now as he's struggling to produce, and many find him to be lazy or invisible on the ice. Not that it's a great comparison, but Brett Hull was also seen this way. Hull was often completely invisible during games until he scored, then scored a couple more times. Kostitsyn isn't the same kind of player Tomas Plekanec is, he likes to sneak in behind the play and do something dynamic. He may never muck it up in the corners the way some want him too, even though he has the physical ability to do it. In the 2007 offseason Paul Holmgren was so unsatisfied with Mike Richards and Jeff Carter's progression that he went out and overpaid Daniel Briere, a move that is now really hurting the Flyers long term. In Montreal would we have been any different with Carter than how we treat Kostitsyn? Had we drafted Jeff Carter with the 10th overall pick in 2003, and he took the same path of progression that he has taken, would we have been patient with him as a young prospect, or thrown him to the wolves? It's impossible to say, but we need to make sure that hindsight isn't 20/20 on Kostitsyn in just a few short years, we need to have some foresight and recognize that players take different amounts of time to get to their prime. It's possible, even likely that by the end of this year Kostitsyn will break the 30 goal barrier for the first time, and next year we have no clue what the limit could be. With the parallels to Carter's NHL progression, we may be sitting (and shitting) on the next superstar for the Montreal Canadiens. Patience please...

All images courtesy of Habsinsideout.com/Montreal Gazette