Berkshire on the Habs

In Case Anyone Hadn't Heard...

2010-11-24T15:48:00.001-05:00

I'll no longer be writing on this site, as I've been asked to join the Montreal Canadiens SB Nation blog, Habs Eyes on the Prize. I've written my first piece there already and it's been featured on NHL.com.

http://www.habseyesontheprize.com/2010/11/23/1832940/gomez-just-a-scapegoat

All I Have To Say.

2010-04-18T13:46:00.001-04:00

Rule 69 - Interference on the Goalkeeper

69.1 Interference on the Goalkeeper - This rule is based on the premise that an attacking player’s position, whether inside or outside the crease, should not, by itself, determine whether a goal should be allowed or disallowed. In other words, goals scored while attacking players are standing in the crease may, in appropriate circumstances be allowed. Goals should be disallowed only if: (1) an attacking player, either by his positioning or by contact, impairs the goalkeeper’s ability to move freely within his crease or defend his goal; or (2) an attacking player initiates intentional or deliberate contact with a goalkeeper, inside or outside of his goal crease. Incidental contact with a goalkeeper will be permitted, and resulting goals allowed, when such contact is initiated outside of the goal crease, provided the attacking player has made a reasonable effort to avoid such contact. The rule will be enforced exclusively in accordance with the on-ice judgment of the Referee(s), and not by means of video replay or review.

For purposes of this rule, “contact,” whether incidental or otherwise, shall mean any contact that is made between or among a goalkeeper and attacking player(s), whether by means of a stick or any part of the body.

The overriding rationale of this rule is that a goalkeeper should have the ability to move freely within his goal crease without being hindered by the actions of an attacking player. If an attacking player enters the goal crease and, by his actions, impairs the goalkeeper’s ability to defend his goal, and a goal is scored, the goal will be disallowed.

If an attacking player has been pushed, shoved, or fouled by a defending player so as to cause him to come into contact with the goalkeeper, such contact will not be deemed contact initiated by the attacking player for purposes of this rule, provided the attacking player has made a reasonable effort to avoid such contact.

69.2 Penalty - In all cases in which an attacking player initiates intentional or deliberate contact with a goalkeeper, whether or not the goalkeeper is inside or outside the goal crease, and whether or not a goal is scored, the attacking player will receive a penalty (minor or major, as the Referee deems appropriate). In all cases where the infraction being imposed is to the attacking player for hindering the goalkeeper’s ability to move freely in his goal crease, the penalty to be assessed is for goalkeeper interference.

In exercising his judgment, the Referee should give more significant consideration to the degree and nature of the contact with the goalkeeper than to the exact location of the goalkeeper at the time of the contact.

69.3 Contact Inside the Goal Crease - If an attacking player initiates contact with a goalkeeper, incidental or otherwise, while the goalkeeper is in his goal crease, and a goal is scored, the goal will be disallowed.

If a goalkeeper, in the act of establishing his position within his goal crease, initiates contact with an attacking player who is in the goal crease, and this results in an impairment of the goalkeeper’s ability to defend his goal, and a goal is scored, the goal will be disallowed.

If, after any contact by a goalkeeper who is attempting to establish position in his goal crease, the attacking player does not immediately vacate his current position in the goal crease (i.e. give ground to the goalkeeper), and a goal is scored, the goal will be disallowed. In all such cases, whether or not a goal is scored, the attacking player will receive a minor penalty for goalkeeper interference.

If an attacking player establishes a significant position within the goal crease, so as to obstruct the goalkeeper’s vision and impair his ability to defend his goal, and a goal is scored, the goal will be disallowed.

For this purpose, a player “establishes a significant position within the crease” when, in the Referee’s judgment, his body, or a substantial portion thereof, is within the goal crease for more than an instantaneous period of time.

Refer also to Reference Tables – Table 18 – Interference on the Goalkeeper Situations.

69.4 Contact Outside the Goal Crease - If an attacking player initiates any contact with a goalkeeper, other than incidental contact, while the goalkeeper is outside his goal crease, and a goal is scored, the goal will be disallowed.

A goalkeeper is not “fair game” just because he is outside the goal crease. The appropriate penalty should be assessed in every case where an attacking player makes unnecessary contact with the goalkeeper. However, incidental contact will be permitted when the goalkeeper is in the act of playing the puck outside his goal crease provided the attacking player has made a reasonable effort to avoid such unnecessary contact.

When a goalkeeper has played the puck outside of his crease and is then prevented from returning to his crease area due to the deliberate actions of an attacking player, such player may be penalized for goalkeeper interference. Similarly, the goalkeeper may be penalized, if by his actions outside of his crease he deliberately interferes with an attacking player who is attempting to play the puck or an opponent.

PJ Stock: Canadiens Didn't Deserve to Win...

2010-04-16T17:07:00.003-04:00

According to PJ Stock, our Habs didn't deserve to win last night. I've never really understood this idea of a team not deserving a win, as long as the game doesn't go to a shootout or isn't decided by officiating, the win is clearly deserved based on one team outscoring the other, but let's examine some common ideas from last night about how the game should have turned out.

The Canadiens were undoubtedly dominated in the first period. Washington came out strong and barraged Jaroslav Halak with shots. He was up to the task in a big way and stoned the Caps on some good scoring chances, however what wasn't talked about very much on CBC or TSN last night was the fact that Montreal limited Washington's scoring chances very well, even in the first period, and most shots Halak had clear line of sight. Two horrid giveaways in the first set up golden chances for the Capitals, but after that the defense settled in and they played spectacular. Being outplayed offensively in one period however, isn't enough for most people to say a team deserves a loss.

Another point that was brought up often was that the Capitals outshot the Canadiens in total after the game, firing a whopping 47 shots on Jaroslav Halak through nearly 4 periods. However many failed to mention that Montreal sent a fairly impressive 38 shots the other way on Jose Theodore. In fact, after the first period, Montreal outshot Washington over the next 53 minutes 31-28. Again I'm failing to see how Montreal didn't deserve the win. Clearly Halak bailed out the Habs in the first period, but after that Theodore did the same thing for the Capitals, as the Canadiens had much better quality scoring chances for the rest of the game.

Another thing I'd like to look at is the goals themselves. For this I'll let you watch the highlights of the game first:

Looking at the two goals by the Capitals, both were off very weird and unfortunate bounces. On the first goal by the Capitals, the puck takes a ridiculous bounce off the boards as Spacek tried to chip it past a Washington player, and the puck goes all the way out to a Capitals player on the blueline. A very lucky, awkward bounce. The second goal, Capitals goal started with a weak clearing attempt by Pouliot, and after a Capitals player keeps the puck in with a chip, the puck takes another ridiculous bounce, this time like it has backspin on it, and Gill can't react quick enough as the puck goes right onto Knuble's stick. To be fair to the Capitals, we also got a lucky bounce after Halak whiffed on a high shot that in turn bounced backwards off the goal line and away from the net, Ovechkin even celebrated.

By contrast to both Capitals goals, all our goals were caused by outworking a Capitals defense that just wasn't committed to be good enough to win this game. Great puck movement by the powerplay unit led to Cammalleri's goal. Gomez's end to end rush through the Capitals' best players was a work of artistry, and a great display of skill by that line. Plekanec's goal, or should I say Tomas Jagr's goal, was taking advantage of a lazy line change by Ovechkin, and the hesitance of Joe Corvo.

I expect the Capitals to be much better on Saturday, but make no mistake in listening to pundits who are paid to tell you what happened with a certain bias, the Canadiens earned this win. They earned it with fantastic team defense, opportunistic offense and great goaltending.

Get Pumped For The Playoffs!

2010-04-13T03:45:00.005-04:00

In order to get us really pumped up for the playoffs, I decided I would spend some time going through highlights and game summaries, to recollect this season in it's entirety. Although we've had some big ups and downs, there were a lot of memorable games, and a lot of very entertaining games. From the 82 games the Montreal Canadiens have played this season, I bring you the top 10, according to me.

10. NOVEMBER 21, 2009 - DETROIT RED WINGS @ MONTREAL CANADIENS

This may seem like an odd choice, with 39 wins the 10th best game of the season was a shootout loss? Well this one started and ended on a sour note, but it needs to be remembered that half the team, and our entire second line was injured in this game. After a brutal shift by Georges Laraque put the Canadiens on the PK for 9 straight minutes in the first period, the team was tired and at the mercy of one of the best teams in the NHL. After some brilliant goaltending by Carey Price, Jacques Martin united the Cammalleri-Plekanec-A.Kostitsyn line, and the Canadiens rallied from 2 goals down in the third period to force overtime and a shootout. Although we didn't win the skills competition, this game showed me what our team was made of, and that we could battle back from nearly anything.

9. MARCH 6, 2010 - MONTREAL CANADIENS @ LOS ANGELES KINGS

Coming out of the Olympic break, the Canadiens were playing their best hockey of the season, however the previous game against San Jose had ended on a sour note with Maxim Lapierre getting suspended and the Habs blowing a 2-1 lead in the third period after a phenomenal performance by Carey Price. The next game against LA didn't look to be any easier, but Montreal played a perfect road game, helped by a very solid performance by Jaroslav Halak. With goals in the first minute of periods one and three, the game never really seemed in doubt. The Canadiens had struggled mightily against Western Conference teams to date, but Halak was leading the charge to change that.

8. FEBRUARY 5, 2010 - PITTSBURGH PENGUINS @ MONTREAL CANADIENS

Beating the reigning Cup champions is always a good feeling, and up until this game they'd really made the Canadiens look bad over 3 games. This game is a prime example of having to be lucky to be good, and good to be lucky. The game was back and forth until 9:30 into the second period, when Halak made a huge save that rebounded to Hamrlik, who in turn set up Gionta for a breakaway. Gionta let loose a great backhand that got by Fleury. We were also given our first real glance at both David Desharnais and Brock Trotter in this game, and both were very impressive along with Ryan White.

7. MARCH 7, 2010 - MONTREAL CANADIENS @ ANAHEIM DUCKS

The game started ugly. The team was absolutely flat after a big win the night before, and Price wasn't as sharp as he was against San Jose earlier in the week, after one period we were down 3-0. For the first and only time in the season however, Jacques Martin made a goalie change when the game was still in reach. Halak rewarded Martin's move by saving all the shots Anaheim would fire at him, and the team would mount a comeback that began with Plekanec, and was carried on by Gionta and Markov. The shootout was a stunner for the hometown fans, as Gionta kept the Habs alive by shooting into Hiller's pads, and Hiller knocked the puck into his own net. Plekanec then finished what he started by sniping one past Hiller to win the game.

6. NOVEMBER 17, 2009 - CAROLINA HURRICANES @ MONTREAL CANADIENS

This game saw two players who'd been slumping offensively for the entire season finally get on the board, as Pacioretty opened the scoring and Andrei Kostitsyn tied it up later on. Montreal dominated the first 40 minutes in a way they rarely had to this point in the season, but they just couldn't finish on their chances. Some excellent goaltending by Michael Leighton (who left with an injury) and Manny Legace exacerbated the problem. Two defensive breakdowns by the Habs had us down 2-1 before Andrei Kostitsyn scored just his second of the year. But the real reason this game is memorable, is the overtime and shootout. Carey Price made seven brilliant saves in overtime while Montreal killed a penalty, and followed that by putting on one of the best shootout performances I've ever seen, and I'm sure many agree. With a little luck on Carolina's last attempt, he secured the win after Maxim Lapierre had scored a beauty on Manny Legace.

5. DECEMBER 19, 2009 - MONTREAL CANADIENS @ NEW YORK ISLANDERS

Montreal Canadiens fans had waited a long time to see one of their goaltenders record a shutout this season, and finally Halak managed to break the lack of shutouts with an unspeakably brilliant 40 save shutout of the New York Islanders, robbing Matt Moulson blind 4 times, every one of which was memorable. This was also the first game back for Andrei Markov, and there's likely no coincidence that this happened the same we got our first shutout. Markov stormed back into the NHL with the first two goals of the game, a smart pinch to bat in a loose puck, and a double-clutched slapshot from the slot. Montreal punished the Islanders with a powerplay that went 3/4 on the night.

4. JANUARY 23, 2010 - NEW YORK RANGERS @ MONTREAL CANADIENS

There's just something I absolutely love about lighting up the Rangers. I think it reminds me of "The Comeback" from that fated day, a day after my birthday in February of 2008. Maybe its the incredibly pissed off body language of Henrik Lundqvist when he gets frustrated and pucks go by him like its going out of style. This game was one that had so much to love. Halak got a well earned shutout, and he was in the heads of the Rangers players as they missed the net 15 times, many of which were good opportunities. The look on Lapierre's face after he broke a long scoring streak was also priceless. Cammalleri had his second 4 point game against the Rangers in 3 tries, and O'Byrne beat up Voros, what's not to like about this game? It was awesome!

3. APRIL 3, 2010 - BUFFALO SABRES @ MONTREAL CANADIENS

A week before, the Canadiens had squandered a perfect road game against the Sabres. Blowing a lead in the last couple minutes, and losing in a shootout. They wasted one of the best goaltending performances of the season, and they were determined not to do the same on this night. Halak had done it all himself the night before, holding a 1-0 lead for a whole game against Philadelphia, and he was just as good against the Sabres, but wasn't needed as much. The Canadiens played perhaps the best game they played all season, and a trio of unheralded players scored to take the 3-0 win. The expression of O'Byrne after his first goal in 100 games is worth watching this one alone.

2. OCTOBER 24, 2009 - NEW YORK RANGERS @ MONTREAL CANADIENS

After jumping out to a great start, some shoddy defensive play and sub-par goaltending got the Canadiens into a hole after one period, but the Canadiens weren't going to lose this game, not if Mike Cammalleri had anything to say about it. In what Montreal Canadiens fans have come to expect from Halak on his off nights, he started off shaky, but made huge saves when it matters most. Several big stops in the second period had the team fire up, and cued by a rush by Lapierre and D'agostini, a comeback was on. Cammalleri had scored the first goal of the game, and after Gaborik erased the progress made by Lapierre and D'agostini, he set up a Bergeron one timer that ripped past Lundqvist. With time running out in the second, Plekanec feathered a pass to a rushing Cammalleri in the slot, which he wristed past Lundqvist with ease. A back and forth third period led to overtime, where Cammalleri scored what can only be described as the goal of the year by a Canadiens player. Dangling from the Habs' blueline, Cammalleri dekes his way through nearly the whole Rangers roster and into the slot, where he fires a bullet past Henrik Lundqvist to win it in OT.

1. DECEMBER 4, 2009 - BOSTON BRUINS @ MONTREAL CANADIENS

I don't think I need to say too much about this one. I also think everyone knew this one would be number one. It's the centennial game, and it came after the most amazing ceremony, perhaps in hockey history. Cammalleri got a hat trick, Metropolit scored against his former team, and Price put on one of the best performances in goal we would see all year. Most Habs fans I knew had goosebumps from the moment Patrick Roy took the ice in full equipment, to the last second of the game when the Canadiens celebrated a 5-1 victory over their hated rivals. You know what? I still get goosebumps, say what you want about the Canadiens management and marketing department, but this was brilliance:

Absence and Return

2010-04-06T17:26:00.002-04:00

I apologize to all those who've read this blog in the past for the 3+ months of laziness and lack of new material. A combination of exams, long term papers and life got in the way, but better organization has allowed me to find time to write once more. Hopefully you will all enjoy the new material on the website in the coming weeks!

I'm also on twitter now, so those of you that partake in that website can follow me there for quick blurbs and updates when I post something here. Thanks for your readership!

-Andrew

A Unique Situation

2010-04-06T17:13:00.001-04:00

The Montreal Canadiens find themselves in a very unique situation this summer, and it happens to be one that the media can't stop talking about, and many other teams likely envy. As the Canadiens close in on clinching a playoff spot, the talk is uniformly about which goaltender should be resigned or traded in the summer, or in fact if it would be more beneficial to keep them both for at least another year. Since the calendar changed over to 2010, and to some even before then, it is beyond clear that Jaroslav Halak is the man in goal this season. Price hasn't played terrible, he hasn't even been bad, in fact his save percentage would put him into the starting job on most NHL teams, but a combination of not being able to win games for a litany of reasons and Halak playing unbelievably brilliant has relegated him to the backup role for awhile at least.

The idea of trading one of the two goaltenders has been bandied about all season, but I tend to agree with JT over on The H Does Not Stand For Habs, as she writes that even with the expected salary increase for Jaroslav Halak, the cap hit for Price may actually go down with an increase to his base salary, but no more rookie bonuses. She estimates his cap hit next season to be approximately $1-1.5 million, likely on a 1 or 2 year deal, similar to Tuukka Rask. It remains to be seen if Price's agent is a bit more savvy than Rask's but if that's what we can get Price for, trading either goalie at this point is absolute insanity. The going rate for a veteran backup in the NHL is around $1 million per season, so adding in another 500,000 in cap hit to have another year to look at these two goalies and solidify the future of the organization is one of the best deals in sports. Although I disagree with JT that we could keep both of them for 2-3 more year, 1 year more would be very doable and very beneficial.

The question I have for everyone reading this however, is whether the media is correct in focusing our attention entirely on the goalies. Are they really our more pressing issue going into the off season? Personally, I don't think so. I've heard many people say that Halak should be the organization's #1 priority as soon as the season is over, and Price after him, followed by Plekanec. I find this to be a completely wrong way to look at things. Certainly the first thing Pierre Gauthier should do is tender qualifying offers to all RFAs, including the goalies, but as far as priorities go among signing players I would rank both goalies behind Plekanec, Pouliot, and even Sergei Kostitsyn. My reasoning for this is that for all three of Plekanec, Pouliot and Sergei, we don't have a player in the organization who can step up and do their jobs. However with both goalies, although annoying and unadvisable, it would not be catastrophic to the team if either one left as long as the other was kept. Say for example that Price is signed to an offer sheet that isn't matched, the result is that we now will go into the season with an inferior backup, and we're stuck with a top end goaltending prospect in Halak, instead of two. Halak likely starts 65 instead of 55 games next year, and unless the unthinkable happens and he somehow turns into Jose Theodore, we're still solid.

On the other hand, we certainly don't have another top 2 center in the organization to take the pressure off of Gomez, and the free agent market is barren. Keeping in mind that Plekanec is also an unrestricted free agent come July 1st, and he should absolutely be our #1 priority. Plekanec is also the player who will be taking up the most salary of all of our (hopefully) returning players, so signing him first to see where the club is at financially is paramount. Benoit Pouliot is also, at this point, irreplaceable within the organization. His size and scoring touch are both fairly unique among the Canadiens roster, and there is no one in Hamilton who is ready to take on his role. The only other player who may be ready to play a top 6 role on the team is another priority, and that's Sergei Kostitsyn. With his talent, tenacity, vision and defensive skill set, there's no better prospect in the Montreal system than Sergei Kostitsyn. Although he started out the season in Jacques Martin's doghouse, and still has trouble getting time on the powerplay, Sergei has become a defensive specialist playing on the third line with Moore and Moen. He plays a ton on the penalty kill and regularly lines up against the opposition's best players at even strength. Tom Pyatt may be able to adequately replace Sergei on the defensive side next season, but offensively he's not even close. Having a player or two with the ability to score on your third line as made the Canadiens much more difficult to play against in the second half.

I don't want anyone to think that I don't value the goalies, because I do believe that of any one player on a hockey team the one who has the most control of the outcome is always the goalie, this is likely why the Vezina Trophy and Jack Adams Trophy are routinely handed out to personnel on the same team. All I'm saying is that even if we get screwed in the offseason in regards to one of our goaltenders, we happen to have another young goalie who has the ability to be a top 10 goaltender in this league. Clearly it is preferable to keep them both, but it's just more important to make sure we have the irreplaceable pieces signed before we worry too much about the tenders.

Images courtesy of habsinsideout.com/Montreal Gazette

Weighing Expectations

2010-01-11T01:06:00.003-05:00

I've been trying all year to weigh my expectations when it comes to young PK Subban. As soon as he began to dominate the World Junior Hockey Championships in December of 2008 the mouths of Habs fans everywhere began to salivate. Many began to boast that we'd stolen the next Bobby Orr in the second round, while others cautioned not to overrate someone just because he was drafted as a Canadien. Some even went so far as to say he was a sure bust because of his lack of defensive skills in his own zone. For me I saw PK has a can't miss prospect, not yet NHL ready but when he is, will be a super star or near it for many years. However like all people with strong opinions I was slightly worried about how he would fair against tougher competition in the AHL. Halfway through the season both Subban and the Bulldogs are buzzing under the tutelage of Guy Boucher. Is PK Subban the next Bobby Orr and poised to take the NHL by storm at any moment? No, but he is likely the best player (not goaltender) drafted by the Canadiens since Tomas Plekanec, and the best defenseman since Andrei Markov.

Offensively Subban is exactly as reported by scouts. As a rookie PK Subban is the highest scoring defenseman, and 5th overall in rookie scoring with 9 goals, 18 assists and 27 points in 39 games. Even more impressive is that Subban is 2nd overall in scoring among defensemen in the AHL, only one point being Jonas Junland of Peoria. Subban is also tied for 1st overall in goals among all AHL defensemen. He's not one to pass up chances either, Subban happens to be tied for 38th overall in shots on goal in the AHL as well. This is all despite a fairly slow start for PK that saw him get only 3 assists his first 10 games, 6 points over the first 17, and only one goal to speak of over that period. The vast offensive improvement after this really speaks to how well Boucher has gotten Subban to adjust to the professional level.

Defensively coming into the season was where many a naysayer balked at PK Subban as a prospect. "He's too raw in his own zone" was the most common criticism. These criticisms were in spite of Subban leading the Belleville Bulls in plus/minus last season with a +47 mark over just 56 games. Many credited the powerhouse Belleville Bulls for his obscene numbers and the lack of defensive play at the junior level. Well it just to happens that Subban is second in the AHL in plus/minus this season with an amazing +22 after just 39 games. He was 1st for awhile before having an off game against Milwaukee where he went -3. I fully expect him to be 1st in plus/minus before long again as his play has been fantastic since mid-November.

Another knock on Subban coming into the season was that he was a soft player. Well his 45 penalty minutes put him near the top of the team on the Bulldogs, and indicate that he's maturing physically with several roughing calls and even a fight. In fact thus far in the season Subban's most impressive game was likely on December 31st against Detroit's farm team the Grand Rapids Griffins as he put up a goal, 2 assists, with 2 shots, a fight and a massive +4.

This kid is a damn good hockey player. He has the skills and attitude to be a superstar in the NHL and I can't see any reason why he won't be. I'm happy that Montreal is not treating PK the same way they have with Latendresse and Pacioretty in bringing them up too soon. I would like to see Subban stay in the AHL for the rest of this season as well as most of next year at the least to get him seasoned before breaking in as an NHL rookie. With dimensional speed and skating ability, an extremely solid yet average sized frame and offensive instincts similar to Mike Green of the Capitals, this kid is for real and I'm done holding back my excitement for him as a prospect.

NHL Officiating and Chris Lee

2009-12-11T15:35:00.009-05:00

Brace yourselves ladies and gentlemen as I believe this may be a long post. I was fortunate enough to attend last night's game against the Penguins at the Bell Centre in the best seats I've ever had. From right behind the Canadiens' bench I had a perspective I've never had before, unfortunately the game ended with a blown call on the part of Chris Lee and he was showered with the most merciless booing I've ever heard, or taken part in from the 21,273 plus those in luxury boxes who attended. The game ended in such frustrating fashion that I had to sleep on it before I started to right because I felt like this would come off as a whining piece from a poor sport instead of a well-thought-out article from a concerned fan, which is what I intend to present. As frustrating as that game was however, the reaction was so strong that for me at least, I knew it wasn't about just this game, and I believe it was the same feeling for most of the others in attendance, and the million or so Canadiens fans who were swearing at their televisions.

So far this season Montreal is 15-15-2 despite losing its best player before the first game of the season was over, and its second best scorer and winger 13 games ago. We've also had a variety of injuries plaguing the team over the entire 32 game schedule thus far. Having this record despite these obstacles leads me to believe that we have a very good team. 7 of the 15 regulation losses were by one goal, so this seems to support my view as well. Add to this that the Montreal Canadiens also have the fewest powerplay chances per game in the league, and the 4th most penalties called against them per game and you have to wonder how exactly we're getting scoring from this team at all. Every team faces obstacles during the season, but thus far the only team I see as comparable in the injury situation is the Edmonton Oilers, although they have 16 more powerplays than their 108 (7th least in NHL) times short handed. Initial reaction by those outside the Canadiens fan base is likely that the Canadiens are undisciplined while the Oilers are not. So a Pat Quinn team is more disciplined than a Jacques Martin team? Really? I can't fathom how this is possible.

The three teams that are averaging more penalties against per game this season than Montreal's 4.3125 are the Carolina Hurricanes, the Philadelphia Flyers and the Anaheim Ducks. It's interesting to me that these teams have been the worst three worst teams in the NHL over the last 10 games or so (although Florida and Columbus have worse records, Columbus' struggles have been almost entirely due to goaltending and Florida was not predicted to be a contender this season so I don't see their struggles to be as bad as these three teams). The Ducks and Flyers are both known to play a rough style trading off the penalties they get for the intimidation the infractions created. All three were expected to be cup contenders coming into the season, so frustration can also set in leading to bad plays, but what's the excuse for the Canadiens being in this group, and how do they compare? Montreal hasn't played Anaheim yet so that comparison is out, so let's look at the other two.

Against Carolina, in Montreal, we were ahead in chances after two periods after dominating the play in the second period. However despite even play in the third where Montreal tied the game, both calls went against the Canadiens. Then in overtime, a double minor against Spacek to give Carolina a 5-3 advantage in penalties. While from my memory I don't think any of the calls against us could be argued very well, especially Spacek's, I'm sure that under pressure for most of the last 40 minutes of regulation that a struggling and desperate team like Carolina likely got away with a ton of calls, especially as without Pitkanen their defensive corps is very slow and therefore likely to resort to illegal plays.

Against Philadelphia, in Montreal, the game was pretty listless as neither team really showed up. The game was even in penalties and called pretty fairly, both teams were allowed to play the game, letting a lot go. That was however until Montreal had a lead with a couple minutes left, when Josh Gorges was called on a phantom tripping penalty by Mike Leggo to give the Flyers an advantage for the rest of the game. This has been a startlingly frequent trend this season, it blew up on us against Washington the week before in a game we deserved to win that ended up a shootout loss. That game ended with the Flyers having a 4-3 advantage in penalties. Not exactly damning, but still not great. Keep in mind that we played Philadelphia at the height of their crap streak, a game after they had a 9 minute penalty kill that led to a blow out for Washington.

So facing the teams that draw the most penalties in the league, we can't seem to get a break. Are we really that bad? As I previously stated I don't believe this to be true, so what's going on here? Some interesting ideas have been raised, like the lack of a strong and persistent forecheck from the Canadiens means less sustained pressure, and therefore less of a chance to draw penalties. This idea sounds like a good explanation, but I don't like it based on what I've seen personally. We clearly don't have the strongest forechecking in the league, but the line of Pacioretty - Metropolit - Moen especially has demonstrated that they can create sustain pressure on the forecheck and draw defenders into hooking, holding and tripping, it just rarely gets called. Some have said that due to a player like Lapierre being known as an agitator that penalties regularly never get called when someone does something to him, and Plekanec's increasing aggression as well as dirty play at times is having the same affect. This also sounds like a good one, but from what I've seen in my life watching the NHL, it's rarely the guy who makes the first dirty play that gets called, it's always the retaliation, and there's been a lot of uncalled retaliation against both players. Pure lack of discipline can explain why we're getting calls against us more often, but I'm not inclined to believe it, and I'm certainly not inclined to believe that it could account for the disparity of being shorthanded 44 times more than having the advantage.

Of course at this point there's the group of people that come out and say Gary Bettman hates Canadian teams, and none more than the Canadiens and is therefore giving the refs directives to call the games against the Canadiens. This kind of thinking is neither true, nor possible. There is no reason the Bettman or anyone involved to call the game in a way that hurts specifically Montreal. Would I believe that referees are asked to be a bit more lenient to the sunbelt franchises that are struggling to make a profit with losing franchises in terrible economies? Maybe, but again this is bordering on conspiracy theory talk and there's been no tangible, coherent evidence presented that I've seen to make me believe it. It also doesn't hold up to the facts to say that the refs hate the Canadiens. As pointed out by frequently frustrating but intelligent poster Chris, last year we had the 2nd most powerplays in the league, and the year before that we had a positive differential of 32 more powerplays than penalties against over 82 games. This year is clearly an anomaly for us. So if it isn't coming down from above, what's happening.

Referees have a difficult job, especially at the NHL level. The game is fast and no matter what they're hated and harassed. Because it's such a difficult job it makes it a lot easier to compartmentalize certain plays in your head and much like a goalie, react to the familiar, muscle memory if you will. From what I've seen watching hockey my whole life it takes a lot for a small player to draw a penalty. It seems like whenever someone under 6 feet tall is knocked over, it's attributed to the player either being weak or diving. This is especially evident if the player who knocks the smaller guy down is a big player. The is very similar to what some on the internet sarcastically dub "Pronger physics", as to how he's allowed to constantly elbow people in the face viciously, or hit them in the head and rarely if ever get suspended because he's taller than most players. Players like Daniel Briere don't help by being one of the most frequent divers in the NHL. Considering that Montreal is only small among it's top 6 forwards as compared to the rest of the league, and we have some massive bodies on the back end and on the bottom two lines, this shouldn't account entirely for the lack of drawing penalties, but there's more to the story.

Ever since Bob Gainey acquired Scott Gomez, and even more so since Cammalleri and Gionta were signed, the media has been repeating ad nauseam that this team was pint sized and way too small to compete in the NHL. I've heard it mentioned at least once between either OTR or Sportscenter every single week day this year. If you think this kind of repetition has no affect then I invite you to look into how propaganda works in politics from communist Russia to separatist Quebec. This idea of Montreal being a small team, despite the average height and weight of the team being above the NHL average, has gotten into the minds of every ref in the NHL, even the good ones. It's not something that has anything to do with Montreal, and it's not on purpose, but it's really hurting Montreal. It's become so ingrained around the league that we're a small team that even players who aren't small, like the Kostitsyns, Pacioretty and Moen are abused often without getting a call.

This is made even more dire because the opposite is also true about taking penalties. When a small players knocks over a big player, most refs in any hockey league will assume an illegal infraction has taken place. This isn't about favouritism or a conspiracy to destroy the great history of the Montreal Canadiens, it's about a subconscious assumption that all referees share to make their jobs a little more simple, which has ended up hurting the Canadiens big time so far this season. I don't blame the refs for this, but let's be honest here, this is inexcusable. Something has to be done instead of letting something innocent plague the team the rest of the season. Bob Gainey or Jacques Martin need to either say something to the director of officiating, or if that doesn't work, play the mind games like Ken Holland and say something in the media. There will be a fine, no doubt, but it needs to be done. Better yet, new owner Geoff Molson, who has a bit more clout as an owner, can rock the boat by addressing the media if speaking in private to NHL head honcho's doesn't work.

To illustrate how important this could be, with our current powerplay efficiency we would add 8 or 9 goals if we had drawn as many powerplays as penalties. With this team being involved in 9 one goal losses included our shootout losses, imagine how 9 extra goals could change the standings. Even if only 4 (half) of those ended up in a game where we lost by one in regulation, 4 more points this year would put us one point behind Boston for 5th in the Eastern conference. It would also make the Canadiens an even team in goals for and goals against with 91 each way. That's a big difference, especially in how the Canadiens are viewed around the league, one that needs to be recognized by Canadiens management, and we need to start playing the game off the ice as well as people like Ken Holland do.

CHRIS LEE

Now that my rational argument is done, it's time for me to say what I've wanted to say all day. Chris Lee needs to be fired by the NHL, or demoted to the AHL where he can't ruin games that matter. You can tell the NHL doesn't consider him to be a good ref due to the lack of playoff games he's refereed in his career, which is a whopping 4 since 1999. Was last night the worst game I've ever seen officiated? No. It probably isn't even the worst game I've seen Chris Lee officiate, but it's going to be remembered for a long time because the one really bad blown call happened at the worst possible time. Chris Lee will say he lost sight of the puck, even though the puck was out of site on many goalmouth scrambles around Carey Price all night and he refused to blow the whistle, and he was clearly out of position so it would make more sense to wait until he was IN position to make the call. Unfortunately the NHL has made it against league rules to speak negatively of the officials, the response being at least a $10,000 fine for coaches. I believe this rule has given an ego of being untouchable to many referees in the game today.

But this isn't why Lee should be fired, the bottom line is that he's an awful official. It was clear all game that he's more concerned about controlling the game than he is about paying attention. After Plekanec got in Malkin's face last night and they took coincidental minors, Matt Cooke started harassing Plekanec after every whistle. The most glaring of which was a blatant spear in the face with the butt of his stick which likely wasn't shown on television as it was right as the game was going to commercial break. The spear was right in front of Chris Lee, who was directing traffic instead of paying attention to his surroundings. It's true that whenever he referees a game with Montreal there seems to be a controversy, but whether he hates the Canadiens or not is irrelevant, he plays his favourites in every game and he's terrible. Every hockey fan that I know that keeps track of refs thinks Chris Lee hates their team. That's a big sign that he blows calls way too often. It's time to let Mr. Lee officiate at a level where he can keep up with the play, maybe Atom A?

ON THE DISALLOWED GOAL

The NHL needs to wake up and explain why the ref saying that he was meaning to blow the whistle is somehow enough of an excuse to disallow a goal that resulted from the puck being loose. It happens all the time, and one of the responses that I hear from referee apologists is that refs are human and humans make errors. Let them make errors, but on this kind of play there should be video review. We use it on every other kind questionable goal, but for some reason the NHL in its usual draconian fashion refuses to take a little bit of power away from the referees. Well if they're human and make mistakes, why don't we have checks and balances to make sure the right call is made? It's a simple review, much simpler than any others. If the goalie covers the puck at all, then it's no goal. If the whistle blew before the puck goes in the net, no goal. Last night Fleury made no attempt to cover the puck, which he admitted in a post-game interview, because he didn't know where it was. The puck slid between his blocker/stick along his right pad and out to Scott Gomez in front of the net before he knocked it in the net. The puck hit the mesh, and halfway back out of the net you hear the whistle go. If this play could be reviewed that would have been a goal without any doubt. Whether Chris Lee lost sight of the puck while he was out of position, not doing his job properly would be irrelevant, and the right call would have been made. It's so simple, but it won't be done because the NHL refuses to be proactive. What if this had been in the 7th game of a playoff series? Granted because it's the playoffs Chris Lee wouldn't be officiating, but many refs blow these kinds of calls. It's time to start making the correct call instead of the human call.

Second image courtesy of habsinsideout.com/Montreal Gazette

A Man Reborn

2009-11-25T02:09:00.003-05:00

A lot of people have already done so, but I think it is time I officially give Tomas Plekanec some major credit this year. Those who communicate with me on a regular basis know I like Plekanec and have been impressed with him this year, but I haven't given him the kudos he's deserved yet.

Plekanec came into this year as an after-thought in my opinion. I thought after last year and how low his confidence was that he would be a poor excuse for a second line center, but boy was I wrong. After watching a couple preseason games I praised Gionta for making Plekanec look good and possibly lighting a fire under his butt, but again, I was totally wrong. Tomas Plekanec is his own worst critic, and that translated into him working his tail off this summer to be a better player. He came into camp in the best shape of his life and ready to prove himself all over again.

It has been talked about all season how Plekanec is playing better than he ever has, how he's become his own player after Kovalev's departure, but to understand how much better Plekanec has been this season I just want to look at one simple statistic; assists. Tomas had a terrible year last year but still managed 20 goals, very impressive for someone who's struggling, but only 19 assists over 80 games. For a guy penciled in as a #2 center coming into the season 19 assists is insanely low, so fans were right to be upset with his game. Over the offseason I questioned how good of a playmaker Plekanec is, thinking that perhaps a dominant powerplay and Kovalev's one good year in Montreal artificially inflated his statistics in 07-08. Tomas has quashed these thoughts in dramatic fashion, in fact he already has 19 assists this season, in 24 games. That means as far as passing goes, he's producing at almost FOUR times the rate as last year. Read that again if you don't believe it. What makes this even more amazing is that before tonight against Columbus, he hadn't played a full game with anyone who could really help him produce. He did most of his work with struggling linemates and on the powerplay.

If you're not already blown away by how well Tomas Plekanec has been passing the puck, allow me to throw out some comparisons. Plekanec is currently tied for 6th in the entire NHL in assists. Players who he happens to be tied with include Anze Kopitar, who's been lights out this season, Martin St. Louis, one of my favourite players and playing with Steven Stamkos, and Nicklas Backstrom, who happens to play with some guy you may have heard of named Alexander Ovechkin. While being tied with Kopitar and St. Louis is very impressive and certainly puts Plekanec in the elite level of playmakers in the league, the one that truly stands out to me is Backstrom. Plekanec has managed, without stable linemates, on an offensively inept (to this point) Montreal Canadiens team, to be tied with one of the best playmakers in the NHL in assists. He's managed to be tied with the guy who sets up the best goal scorer in the NHL. If that isn't amazing, I don't know what is.

Tomas Plekanec is the exact reason why players who have off seasons need to be given a second chance. He wants to play in Montreal and it shows. In analyzing just one aspect of his game I think anyone can tell that we need to keep Tomas long term. Let's hope that Bob Gainey feels the same way.

Habs Inside/Out Summit 2009

2009-11-24T02:00:00.007-05:00

I had the privilege of partaking in the annual Habs Inside/Out fan summit this past weekend, and I can't recall a weekend where I had quite this much fun. It was great to put faces to names, although slightly nerve racking at the beginning because you don't know who's going to be there. Perhaps you meet up with someone you've had a heated argument in the past (Hello Tommy B!), and it might be awkward, but all that quickly falls away. Within minutes everyone sees each other without the vague tone of text, and communication becomes clear. We're Habs fans, and we all want the same thing, wins.

On Friday it seemed like everyone was a little nervous about the outcome of the weekend, a back to back with Washington and Detroit surely spelled disaster for a team with so much inconsistency and so many injuries, but the boys pulled off an unlikely win in Washington, and the confidence was flowing. Luckily for many fan's livers, even Marc-Andre Bergeron turned in a pretty solid performance against Washington.

On Saturday a tour of the Bell Centre, where many of us sat in Mike Boone's chair, was followed by a few drinks at Ye Olde Orchard Pub, and a ton of Habs stories shared by some great fans that I feel very privileged to have met in person. And in true Habs Inside/Out fashion the true stories soon gave way to a challenge, of who could MAKE the best stories. For example what is the REAL reason why Sergei Kostitsyn missed the bus in preseason, the more absurd the better. And if that doesn't catch your fancy, then who on Habs Inside/Out is Chris Chelios' illegitimate love child?

It was also an honour to meet Dave Stubbs, although unfortunately I wasn't able to stay at Hurley's long enough to meet some of the others who contribute to the site like Mike Boone and Chris Aung-Thwin. These guys give us some great topics to talk about, and despite what many say about the moderators of the site, they do their best to keep the site civil and that's a good thing. I don't think any other NHL team has a website that functions as well as ours for discourse among so many fans, and it's awesome to have it provided to us by these gentlemen.

After a rough first period there was a sour mood at the Bell Centre on Saturday, but thanks to the team rallying around a solid performance by Price, a new 1st line emerged 9 seconds into the 3rd period as Cammalleri converted on a dandy drop pass by the awakened Andrei Kostitsyn. All of a sudden, and in true Habs fan form, the Bell Centre was rocking. A short time later Kostitsyn made yet another perfect pass to Cammalleri, which tied the game. Unfortunately we couldn't tie the Vancouver Canucks' record of 9 straight OT and SO victories, but we stole a point when all seemed lost. We were proud of a Canadiens team that was very depleted with injuries, so there were no hard feelings. In fact I think I almost went nuts when we tied it, as evidenced by this!

In closing I'd like to give a big thanks to Ian Cobb, who organized this summit and worked his tail off to keep up with the young guns. You did a great job Ian, thanks for a perfect weekend! I'll leave you all with this today:

To you with failing hands we throw the torch; be yours to hold it high

Show Kostitsyn Patience!

2009-10-30T14:34:00.009-04:00

Seems like everyone is ready to give up on not just Sergei Kostitsyn these days, but his slow-starting brother Andrei as well. He's become the new whipping boy for the team in the press, as well as among a large section of the fans. Despite not apologizing for the false report of criminal activity last year, the Francophone portion of the media haven't cut him any slack either. To be fair, Andrei really isn't doing himself any favours with 1 goal and 3 assists over 12 games, but to run a 24 year old top 10 draft pick out of town in his 3rd full NHL season is just not smart.

Kostitsyn has the unfortunate tag of being a top pick in the highly coveted 2003 NHL Entry Draft, and even worse, the guy picked right after him is Jeff Carter, who scored 46 goals last season. This leaves a sour taste in the mouths of Habs fans over what could have been. Many are bitter that despite producing many solid NHL players for the last 9 or so drafts, we have yet to bring in and keep a super star. It's for this very reason however, that I think it's very unwise to get too down on our Belorussian who's on the big club.

It's easy for everyone to see that Andrei Kostitsyn is very talented, he's a great skater, he's physical, and he has one of the best wrist shots I've seen in the NHL. When watching Kostitsyn it's easy to see a game-breaker in the future, but many don't believe he'll ever hit his potential. I'd like to illustrate a parallel here that might change some minds.

I think it's fairly accepted that while AHL experience is good, NHL experience is much more valuable, especially to European born players. Because Jeff Carter was picked right after Kostitsyn, he's often the most lamented miss by Gainey since he came aboard. Well Carter came into the NHL earlier than Kostitsyn, so I think it's necessary that we look at the first few years in the NHL for both of them and see if there's a massive difference in production.

Jeff Carter

1st season [05-06] GP - 81, G - 23, A - 19, P - 42, +10, Shots - 189, Sh% - 12.17

A very solid rookie year, breaking the 20 goal barrier at a young age and showing promise defensively as a +10 on a pretty good team. Played against secondary defenders as the Gagne - Forsberg - Knuble line drew the other team's top defense pairings most nights.

2nd season [06-07] GP - 62, G - 14, A - 23, P - 37, -17, Shots - 215, Sh% - 6.51

A slight regression offensively on a team that took a nosedive. Lingering ankle injury surely hampered performance. Took a lot more shots with more responsibility, but shooting % took a massive nosedive. Defensive play likely looks worse than it is as Philadelphia is the worst team in the league.

3rd season [07-08] GP - 82, G - 29, A - 24, P - 53, +6, Shots - 260, Sh% - 11.15

Big jump in goals as injury woes are put behind, but a fairly large regression in assists. The regression and injury problems of Carter and Richards made overzealous new GM Holmgren sign Daniel Briere to a massive contract to shore up the center position after Forsberg was traded. Defensive play looks a lot better as the team improves by leaps and bounds. Took slightly less shots per game, but to greater effectiveness. Learning to pick his spots.

4th season [08-09] GP - 82, G - 46, A - 38, P - 84, +23, Shots - 342, Sh% - 13.45

With Briere injured Carter takes the opportunity to break out offensively. A massive improvement in every category, firing more shots to even greater efficiency. Steps into elite status in the NHL. Makes a lot of Montreal fans very angry.

Andrei Kostitsyn

1st season [07-08] GP - 78, G - 26, A - 27, P - 53, +15, Shots - 156, Sh% - 16.67

A very solid rookie season. Matches Carter's 3rd year in points in his first year, while playing better at even strength and shooting less. Played on one of the best lines in the NHL in the last half of the season with Kovalev in Plekanec. Most reviews of Kostitsyn are entirely positive, with the one suggestion that he shoot much more to take advantage of his powerful wrister. 3 more goals, 8 more assists, than Carter's respective rookie season while playing against top defenders.

2nd season [08-09] GP - 74, G - 23, A - 18, P - 41, -7, Shots - 169, Sh% - 13.61

A noticeable regression in all categories except shots. A head injury to start the year slows him down for quite awhile. After going on an offensive tear in mid-season a "scandal" breaks in the news involving him and his little brother, and his play drops off big time. Numbers also suffer as the entire team struggles offensively as compared to the season before, and chemistry doesn't seem to exist.

Preaching Patience

Everyone is all over Kostitsyn right now as he's struggling to produce, and many find him to be lazy or invisible on the ice. Not that it's a great comparison, but Brett Hull was also seen this way. Hull was often completely invisible during games until he scored, then scored a couple more times. Kostitsyn isn't the same kind of player Tomas Plekanec is, he likes to sneak in behind the play and do something dynamic. He may never muck it up in the corners the way some want him too, even though he has the physical ability to do it. In the 2007 offseason Paul Holmgren was so unsatisfied with Mike Richards and Jeff Carter's progression that he went out and overpaid Daniel Briere, a move that is now really hurting the Flyers long term. In Montreal would we have been any different with Carter than how we treat Kostitsyn? Had we drafted Jeff Carter with the 10th overall pick in 2003, and he took the same path of progression that he has taken, would we have been patient with him as a young prospect, or thrown him to the wolves? It's impossible to say, but we need to make sure that hindsight isn't 20/20 on Kostitsyn in just a few short years, we need to have some foresight and recognize that players take different amounts of time to get to their prime. It's possible, even likely that by the end of this year Kostitsyn will break the 30 goal barrier for the first time, and next year we have no clue what the limit could be. With the parallels to Carter's NHL progression, we may be sitting (and shitting) on the next superstar for the Montreal Canadiens. Patience please...

All images courtesy of Habsinsideout.com/Montreal Gazette

An Up and Down Season Is To Be Expected

2009-10-28T23:49:00.005-04:00

No matter how many times we're told this team is a "science experiment", as Pierre McGuire in his infinite lack of tact puts it, it's hard to just sit down and accept that this team still isn't going to play it's best hockey night in and night out. We had a really nice streak going in 3 games against sub-par teams, and one game against a good team in the Rangers. Not to say that the team didn't deserve all four wins, or didn't play great, but we were the beneficiaries of some less than stellar competition. That said tonight's ugly affair shouldn't be seen as the story of the season either.

It is tough to judge just how good (or bad) these Canadiens are so early, but I think we need to look closely at both the positives and the negatives to understand that this is still a process taking place over 82 games, in a season that was supposed to be a write-off after Markov went down in Game 1. Of course there's more negatives in the rear view mirror tonight than there was two days ago, or even this morning, but a 6-6-0 record after 12 games without our number one defenseman with a team just getting to know each other is nothing to scoff at. That said, let's take care of the negatives first so we can end on a positive note.

Negatives

Our defense is still a work in progress. It seems like Marc-Andre Bergeron alternates a good defensive night and a bad one, and that's something that needs to improve for him. Against the Islanders he was very quick and separated players from pucks very well, tonight he was shaky and unsure of himself, which can't happen against Malkin and Crosby. Gill also had a bad night, although not nearly as bad as some would have you believe. His second penalty was a bad call, but I thought it was a penalty as well before there was a replay so you can't blame the refs there. Spacek is still not playing hockey the way he can, and that's frustrating a lot of fans. He finally got his first goal, but he needs to be more of a leader defensively, and compliment Hamrlik's good play thus far. Hamrlik has been beaten one-on-one a few times of late, but let's be honest, he isn't a #1 defenseman and although he's stepped it up admirably, he should probably be seeing secondary scorers instead of first lines all the time at his age. But until Markov comes back, Hamrlik and Spacek will be forced to keep playing against the best competition the other side can muster. Speaking of Markov, he's still going to be injured a long time, and that still sucks.

The flu is likely going to make a run through this team in the coming week, as Gomez and Metropolit have already come down with it. For the first time this season the top line actually looked pretty bad. Gionta couldn't handle the puck tonight to save his life, Cammalleri was mostly invisible, and Gomez was the best of the three while suffering from the flu. Andrei Kostitsyn and Latendresse continue to compete for top 6 forward spots, but instead of trying to outplay each other, they're seeing who can play themselves OUT of a spot first. There were a couple games where AK46 has looked like he was going to take off, unfortunately I can't say the same thing about Latendresse. Gui needs to take a personal day to stay on the practice ice and practice getting shots on the net. Then he needs to practice hitting pucks quickly that are bouncing or in awkward places in traffic in front of the net. He says he wants to be the next Tomas Holmstrom, but I don't see the quick hands or hand-eye coordination necessary in Latendresse to be that guy. Pacioretty should probably be playing in the AHL. He's still too impatient with the puck and makes the wrong play in the offensive zone most of the time. Some confidence for him would be good.

Neither Halak or Price have been world beaters so far this year, aside from Price's first two spectacular games of course. Rumours abounded about Price being traded after Halak's little winning streak, but there are some bad trends that Halak's ardent fans fail to see. Like Price, Halak is a young goaltender who is not ready to be a 60 start per year guy. His numbers looked really good the last while after facing 2 terrible teams in 3 games. Halak also plays much better at home than on the road, by a very wide margin. There seems to be a rule among Habs fans (the guys at Lions in Winter for one) that great goalies find ways to keep the goal totals of the other team to 3 or less on most nights, and according to this rule Halak worries me a bit. He has played good for the most part, but he's let in 4 goals in every game he's played against last year's playoff teams. He can't be blamed for tonight's loss in it's entirety, but the first two goals were not good, and if he stops them this is a completely different game. I like Halak's potential just like I like Price's potential, but until Halak can play as good against the good teams, and win away from the Bell Centre, I don't think he's starting goalie material. Price was also not great on either goal tonight, but he has the built in excuse of coming in cold against the Cup champions. I don't think that excuses it, he needs to be better, especially on that Kunitz breakaway. He made the first move, which is a rookie mistake.

Positives

Now for the better part, starting with the defense. Paul Mara has been quietly putting together a solid year, if unspectacular. Mara hits, makes plays and protects his teammates. And aside from that I met him last week and he's a nice guy with an epic beard. Josh Gorges continues his progression from last year and has been the most consistent defenseman on the club. Josh hasn't had an off game this year, and its great to see him turn into a leader on this team. Bergeron seems to need some time every game on the powerplay, but once he gets his stride he can be lethal with the man advantage. He's no Markov, but when Markov comes back, I think Bergeron's effectiveness goes up 100%. Hal Gill, despite constant heckling, has been effective on the PK and even 5-on-5 in limited doses. I've watched Gill closely this season to see if he was as bad as people want to believe, but to be honest he's been very good defensively for the most part. The Czech pairing of Hamrlik and Spacek has been good and will continue to improve. It's been noticed by many that Spacek plays worse during the last 10 minutes of the third, which to me says his conditioning wasn't great in the offseason, so we're only going to see better from him going forward.

Cammalleri has the skill and determination combo that no forward has had for the Montreal Canadiens since Saku Koivu before his first major injury. By the end of this season Montreal fans will forget about Alex Kovalev, who deserves to be forgotten anyway. Gionta and Gomez have both been better than their numbers indicate in this young season, and the speed and tenacity of the top line is going to be consistently lethal all year long. Tomas Plekanec might be the second best forward on this team, behind Cammalleri. In fact in some ways Plekanec may be better. I was worried Plekanec would be the same as we saw last year, but it seems like Kovalev really dragged him down in 08/09. Plekanec is still flirting with a point per game 12 games into the season, and when he gets consistent linemates he'll be even better. With 18 hits in 12 games Andrei Kostitsyn, although not producing offensively, is not playing a soft game. This is a good sign to me as last year when he was playing poorly he was not laying out hits. This year he seems less afraid to get mixed up in the rough stuff, perhaps inspired by the play of the little guys and Plekanec. Lapierre has started to get his speed and edge back in the last couple games, after starting slow out of the gate. I'm guessing his offseason surgery had something to do with his slow start as Lapierre usually doesn't take shifts off. Metropolit has been excellent, much better than I possibly imagined. I don't think think he'll keep his current pace, but a career high of 35-40 points is in the realm of possibility. Moen has also been an offensive surprise, and the will to drive to the net is something the Canadiens have been lacking for a long time. I was one person of a few who defended Chipchura in his first few games, missing training camp with an injury it was clear he would take some time to adjust to the NHL game. Well he's adjusted, and he's been pretty damn good the last few games. He looks like he belongs as a shutdown center/faceoff specialist. D'agostini has improved defensively in pretty much every game, and if he can get his scoring going on a semi-regular basis we're in for a treat.

Both goaltenders have had good and bad games, and both will need to be better if this team is going to make the playoffs. That said I don't feel uncomfortable with either goalie in net, as each will give us a chance to win on most nights. As the players become more accustomed to Martin's system, and O'Byrne is due to come back from injury soon, our defense gets better and better, which leads to better goaltending. I don't have anything remarkably negative or positive to say about our young goaltending tandem, but hopefully by the 20 game mark both of them can give me something to write about in the positive section

Take on the season thus far

If you would have told me on September 30th that we would lose Markov in the first game of the season, O'Byrne in the second, but still manage to be 6-6-0 after 12 games, I would have told you I thought you were lying. 4-8-0 maybe, 3-9-0 more likely. The five straight losses were annoying, but they were to be expected with a team struggling to come together on the fly. What's important in this season is that we maintain a .500 record until Markov comes back, and use that as a springboard going into the postseason. I don't care if we make it in 1st in the East or 8th, once we get in I just want to see good hockey from a team that trusts each other and plays for each other. This means that even maintaining our current pace is above what was predicted for this team, and in all honesty satisfactory considering the circumstances. The best part of this situation is that we can see improvements in the way the team is playing every game, and we might end up far ahead of schedule in wins by the time Markov returns. How nice does Spacek and Hamrlik sound for the SECOND wave of the PP?

Sidenote: I told you all about Cammalleri. Right after I write a blog he scores 5 in 4 games!

All images courtesy of Habsinsideout.com/Montreal Gazette

Should We Be Worried?

2009-10-16T02:20:00.004-04:00

It's six games in now, and Mike Cammalleri has yet to light the lamp. It's got a lot of people very worried, and in the post game interview tonight he stated that if he could have converted on a couple of his chances this season we might be 4-2 instead of 2-4. While this is true we can't expect a 30-40 goal scorer to score every game. Players not named Alexander Ovechkin do go through extended scoring slumps. Luckily for us we can look at Cammalleri's recent career history, and find out that he experienced some slumps last year in the west as well. Mike didn't score in 6 straight games from November 1st to 9th, another 6 straight from March 6th to 18th, and and in 8 straight games from March 25th to April 7th. When you look at that it doesn't look very good for Mike, but he still scored 39 goals, which means he scores in bunches. Upon further inspection, he scored his 39 goals in 29 games. If Cammalleri doesn't score for another six games, I'll be the first to be annoyed, but let's cut him a little bit of slack for the time being, as it's not for lack of effort. Unlike our last expected offensive leader (Alex Kovalev) Cammalleri doesn't float around the ice and play well for 2 minutes of ice time every 20. He works hard everywhere he goes and creates chances for his linemates. It's because of this that I don't feel that stressed out that he hasn't lit the lamp.

Another reason to not be that worried is the re-emergence of some secondary scoring. We haven't exactly taken over a game yet, but we have got a second line pair that seems to be getting better every game in Tomas Plekanec and Andrei Kostitsyn. It took a few games for Tomas' solid play to rub off on Andrei, but tonight it finally seemed to click, and we're in for an improvement there. So far the lines haven't managed to click on the same night, but that will come with time. Other positives to come out of this game include Pacioretty looking a bit better, as well as getting his first point of the season, and Shawn Belle looking very much like he belongs in the NHL. He made a couple mistakes during the game, but that's to be expected in his first game up. He plays a safe, simple game and he has great speed which he showed a couple times when Colorado forwards got behind him, and he promptly caught them. Kyle Chipchura is also looking better every game, and I can't wait until Metropolit is back so Chips can shift to the wing and bump out Laraque. One thing that worries me so far this season is the play of D'agostini, who won't remain with the organization much longer if he can't find a way to contribute. He's been looking lost in every game he's played but the first against Toronto, and Jacques doesn't seem to have much faith in him. Hopefully my seething optimism isn't too annoying.

GO HABS GO!

A Road Trip in Bullet Points

2009-10-14T00:44:00.008-04:00

As I said before the season even started, Max Pacioretty is not ready to play big minutes in the NHL, and is definitely not a dependable top six scorer.
Georges Laraque looks like a much better player this season.
Off the ice Georges Laraque is still every bit as pretentious and annoying as last season.
Hal Gill is getting an unfair shake by the fans, he's slow, but look at Robert Lefebvre's breakdown of the Canadien's on the ice during the penalty kill.
The penalty kill is atrocious, but getting better.
Brian Gionta is better than Alex Kovalev.
Carey Price is going to have a bounce back year, although the next week will likely be touch and go after the team abandoned him in his home coming.
Aside from Vancouver, Montreal has been in every game, and we probably should be 4-1 right now instead of 2-3, eventually we're going to get the bounces and calls to go our way if the effort is maintained.
When Mike Cammalleri finally does light the lamp, it will be followed by an explosion of offense. He's just too good to struggle much longer.
Scott Gomez isn't going to be a point per game player, but he's good enough defensively to make up for it, and sometimes he creates plays and doesn't end up with credit on the scoreboard. Is he worth his salary? No, but I'm satisfied with his current play.
Jacques Martin doesn't like young players very much. You can tell by many of his questionable coaching decisions in Edmonton that he would rather have a veteran like Laraque on the ice than someone who can score but is more of a risk in D'agostini.
Paul Mara is surprisingly solid, and could be one of the steals of the summer.
Fans need to remember that Spacek was expected to work the powerplay with Markov, not by himself, so expecting a 50-60 point season out of him is ridiculous.
This team has more character throughout than last year's team.
A 2-3-0 record with the Habs being in it 4/5 games on a five game road trip with an entirely new team, coaching staff and system, with Markov gone, is 100 times better than anyone expected this team to do.
The two people who left in the off season that both fans and the media complained most about Gainey letting go, Kovalev and Komisarek, are having terrible starts with their new teams. Kovalev is disinterested and floating with untalented linemates, and Komisarek is a focal point in everything that's wrong with the 0-5-1 Leafs
Bob Gainey is a better General Manager than Brian Burke, and he was completely right when he said that the Leafs were building a team that wasn't in line with the way the NHL is evolving, and it makes me grin an annoyingly arrogant grin.
Andrei Kostitsyn is improving as the season gets older, and he'll still have a breakout year.
Tomas Plekanec will be largely responsible for Andrei's breakout. His hard work all over the ice and renewed offensive confidence are excellent to see. The backhander in the dying seconds of the middle period against Calgary is something we never saw from Plekanec last year, he was trying too hard instead of following his instincts, which are that of an excellent player.
We've currently alienated the top 6 forward missing from our lineup, and he's lingering in Hamilton awaiting a trade that likely won't happen. On the bright side, Washington had to SUE Alexander Semin to get him to play there, and look how that turned out.
This may be a bit harsh, but Gregory Stewart is not an NHL player, and he never will be.
Kyle Chipchura isn't as bad as his stats make him look, and his skating is better than most fans believe.
Travis Moen is a third or fourth line player at best, and Martin needs to remember that and stop looking like Carbo. Moen played his best two games of the season on the fourth line, he's not suited to a scoring line.
Scott Gomez thus far sucks at faceoffs, but he's averaged over 52% since the lockout, so this has to be an aberration, or he gets better as the season goes on.
Paul Mara's beard is a better defenseman than Mike Komisarek
Matt D'agostini is a scorer, not a grinder, he needs to be on a scoring line in order to be effective. Eight minutes a game with Kyle Chipchura doesn't help him look good.
Latendresse should probably get a look on one of the top two lines, he's been good on the powerplay thus far and his puck control along the boards is improved.
Latendresse needs to stop that stupid wraparound move he does every time he goes behind the net. Every goalie expects a wraparound. You've only scored on it once Gui, and that was against Kari Ramo, not exactly an elite goalie.
As much as I get frustrated when the Canadiens lose a winnable game, I find it humourous that the same people who are lauding Gainey as a genius after two overtime wins call him an utter failure after one bad game in Vancouver.
As of right now, the Montreal Canadiens are playing better than the Boston Bruins, despite a tougher schedule and more obstacles to overcome. Suck it Boston.
Mike Cammalleri has had seasons of 53, 54, 54, and 60% in the faceoff dot, and is at 61.5% this year so far. Why isn't he taking more faceoffs?
Speaking of faceoffs, as much as fans and those in the media such as Mike Boone of the Montreal Gazette and Habsinsideout.com (the best site on the internet btw) have been trashing Kyle Chipchura for his defensive play thus far, he's 11 and 5 on the faceoff dot in three games. That's good for 68.8% and best on the Canadiens. It's also a whopping 30% better than Glen Metropolit in that category. With linemates not named Georges Laraque and Greg Stewart, it's very likely that Kyle Chipchura could be a very good 4th line center.
The defense are going to take a longer time to adjust to the new system than the forwards, especially with Markov and O'Byrne gone.
Tom Pyatt deserves a shot on the 4th line with the big club, and Greg Stewart should be sent down even before Pacioretty. Patches can at least play on the third and fourth line and not be a liability, Stewart.... not so much.
Jaroslav Halak is better than he was against Calgary, and deserves another start soon, but not before Price plays a couple more games to get his groove back.
Spacek is better defensively than I remember him being when I watching him during Edmonton's playoff run.
We're the only team to have beaten a strong looking Buffalo team, that just shellacked the Detroit Red Wings.
The NHL's scheduling this year SUCKS. Somedays we have 15 games, and others we have none. How can it be that unbalanced when it's supposed to be compressed? If the NHL complains about the olympic break, then makes scheduling blunders like this, who'd really to blame?
Brian Gionta is still going to be the next captain of the Canadiens.
The Montreal Canadiens will make the playoffs.

If All Else Fails Part 2: Free Agents

2009-10-06T12:26:00.008-04:00

On to the second and final part of this rundown of what the Canadiens could do to shore up the defense now that Markov and O'Byrne have gone down. There are several free agents out there that are available, and even some that are heavily rumoured to be in contract talks with the Canadiens, or have at least offered their services. Let's take a look at the players available and what they would bring to our team.

Marc-Andre Bergeron

Pros: I lived in northern Alberta from 1998-2005, and went back there from May to August from 2005-2007, so I've actually seen Bergeron play a lot when he was with Edmonton, while my experience watching him is a bit old, I've asked around and apparently he hasn't changed much. Bergeron has a wicked shot, an absolute rocket. Possibly better than Yannick Weber's shot as far as power goes. Bergeron is also a very good skater, he brings speed and acceleration above the average on our defensive corps right now. He has a fairly good pass, but not elite, shooting is where he makes his money. He would undoubtedly contribute on the powerplay, that's his bread and butter. Bergeron is also a Quebecer, so it would be very appreciated by the Francophone members of the media to have another player to interview, as well as the Francophone fans watching on RDS to see the opinion of another player.

Cons: And there are some big ones! While his shot is extremely hard, it is also wildly inaccurate. I can't even count how many times I've seen Bergeron tee up for a massive shot, with no bodies in the way, and miss the net by 12 feet only to see the puck bounce off the boards and out of the zone on a powerplay. If Habs fans found Mike Komisarek's constant shooting into a player's shin pads frustrating, wait until you see this shot cause multiple 2-on-1 breaks for the other team on the same powerplay. Bergeron is also a little reckless in his own zone, and because of his small stature and lack of strength, he can rarely cover up his mistakes by muscling players off the puck. His positioning in his own zone is also not the best we could hope for. I don't see this as a necessary move for the Canadiens unless Yannick Weber struggles mightily offensively. With Ryan O'Byrne going down I would much rather see a more defensive minded defender coming in. There's also the issue of salary, I don't think Bergeron is going to take a bargain basement deal to play, even though he may be desperate. He made over 1.5 million last year and had a solid year, so he may still be looking for over 2 million. It easily fits in while Markov is gone, but when he's back I would think Bergeron would be trade bait at best. 2 million in the cap world his harder to move than say, under a million. Also he may kill our goalie in the first game of the Stanley Cup finals, like he did to Roloson. Sometimes being a veteran (the only clear advantage Bergeron has over Weber) doesn't necessarily make you a better option. If anything players have become used to Bergeron's turnovers and he may be more of a risk than he's worth. I think that while Bergeron may be initially cheered for offensive prowess as well as being French Canadian, he may in a few short games become the next Patrice Brisebois, constant source of ridicule. Speaking of the Breezer, apparently he's offered his services, so....

Patrice Brisebois

Pros... Cons: I'm sorry Breezer but the time has come and gone for you to make an impact. I appreciate that you absolutely bleed bleu, blanc et rouge, but at 38 you no longer have the speed and endurance to make up for the turnovers. Even though you'd surely be willing to take the NHL's lowest salary to play one more year, it's time to give the youngsters a chance, and there's nothing you bring to the table that I can't see Yannick Weber doing just as well, and getting better as the year drags on, not worse. I think Mike Boone said it best...

Mathieu Dandenault

Pros: Dandenault is a familiar face to most of the team, the fans and the media. He couldn't crack the San Jose Sharks lineup in training camp which I found fairly astonishing, because I really like Dandenault as a player. He was easily one of our best last season. He possesses blinding speed, and surprisingly (at least to me), excellent offensive capabilities according to some analysis done by Lions in Winter contributer Topham. He's also solid in his own zone, very good positionally and strong enough to handle most forwards. Another French Canadian, it would be useful to have him on the team for that purpose alone, as it's been pointed out several times already this season that 3 French speakers on the team is not enough. Mathieu is also extremely versatile. He played forward for most of his time with the Canadiens, and he excelled last year especially on the fourth line. I think most would agree with me that his constant beating out of icings is very valuable in important games. Dandenault is a good mixture of offense and defense that could undoubtedly help the Canadiens depth on defense right now, as well as contribute on the 4th line when Markov returns from injury. It's also very likely that Dandenault would be willing to settle for a small salary, allowing the Canadiens to save some of the cap space created by Markov's injury for future deals throughout the season.

Cons: It's easy to forget after how good he was last year, but Dandenault was rarely a happy player in Montreal. He complained constantly in his first few seasons about being a healthy scratch when he knew he could contribute. Seeing his play last year it would seem very difficult to argue with him, but his play the two years before as a minus player didn't do him any favours. He also complained a bit when he was forced to play forward, as he would much rather be playing defense, which might be a problem again as it's likely that when O'Byrne returns from injury, Mathieu would be bumped down the depth chart on defense and only draw into games as a forward on the 4th line, if he gets into games at all since it seems like Jacques Martin likes Georges Laraque and Gregory Stewart. There's also Chipchura and D'agostini to think about, both of whom are looking to break out this year. Having a complaining Dandenault in the dressing room, reverting to his form of two years ago would not be good.

Chris Chelios

NO!!!!!!

If All Else Fails Part 1: Trades

2009-10-04T18:19:00.006-04:00

The Internet is flooded with rumours of what Bob Gainey could do to help out the Canadiens now that Markov is out for 2-4 months, and we've taken another hit (although relatively minor) in O'Byrne going down 4-6 weeks with some ankle and knee problems. I still believe the best way to weather this storm of injuries is within the organization, giving our young players the opportunity to take on more responsibility, but if we're struggling after 10 games and under .500, Gainey may feel he needs to make a move to improve the offensive portion of the defensive corps. Two main trade rumours have been cropping up again and again in the last few days, and I want to explore the pros and cons of both, while adding a third option that I haven't heard anyone else talk about.

John Michael Liles

Proposed trade: This one varies a bit depending on the source, but the one I've heard most often is Liles coming our way for both Kostitsyn brothers.

Colorado's take: This trade give Colorado a slight amount of cap relief by shipping out Liles' 4.2 million dollar cap hit and only taking on 3.25 from Andrei and Sergei's small (under 0.9 million) contract as well as RFA status. That could be appealing to Colorado as they've acquired Kyle Quincey in the off season to man the powerplay, and Colorado is by all accounts, rebuilding, so a small salary would be helpful now that Sakic is retired and the Pepsi Center is rarely full. Adding the Kostitsyns also would give Colorado two solid wingers to play on the second line with Matt Duchene, both would be huge upgrades on Marek Svatos and Darcy Tucker.

Montreal's take: Coming Montreal's way, Liles would upgrade the speed of our defense for sure, and possibly play well with Spacek on the powerplay, but Liles has always been criticized in Colorado for his defensive play and his lack of a big shot. One of the major reasons for Liles' big goal production early in his career was Rob Blake's big shot on the point drawing the shot blockers to him instead. Liles is an excellent skater, but he is also very small, and for the money he's making I think i'd much rather play Yannick Weber, who has a big shot, and is more solid size wise (199 to 185 lbs respectively). Not to mention Weber is much cheaper, and we don't lose anything to get him. To be honest, I can't see this trade as anything more than a massive fleecing of Montreal which could only take place if we're absolutely desperate for Yannick Weber to get older and lose his bullet shot.

Brian Campbell

Proposed trade: Brian Campbell and Patrick Sharp to Montreal, Sergei Kostitsyn, Jaroslav Halak, Andrei Kostitsyn and a draft pick (possibly conditional) to Chicago.

Chicago's take: Chicago has been looking for a way to get out of Brian Campbell's contract since pretty much the day they signed it. Massively overhyped by the media in his contract year (a la Bouwmeester), it seems like NHL scouts were too lazy to actually check out what they were signing to a long term deal at big money. It's undeniable that with cap trouble looming in Chicago, Keith, Toews and Kane up for big raises, they want Campbell's contract out of town. In order to facilitate this they MAY be willing to trade Patrick Sharp, who they value heavily for his leadership, clutch goals and grit. Uniting Sergei Kostitsyn with Patrick Kane is an intriguing possibility for Chicago I'm sure, but at this point in his career Patrick Kane is doing just fine without our temper-mental little Belorussian. With Huet a question mark in goal, it's a possibility that Chicago would be looking at Halak as an option, but they seem to have high hopes for Antti Niemi for now. Andrei Kostitsyn could be a capable replacement for Sharp going the other way, but I don't think Chicago is in any way desperate to obtain him.

Montreal's take: I love Patrick Sharp, he's a solid player in every aspect, signed to a very reasonably salary for the next 3 seasons and easily an upgrade on Andrei Kostitsyn at this point for the second line, but I just can't see how Montreal can take on a salary like Campbell's especially after already taking on a similar salary in Scott Gomez. According to NHLnumbers.com, Montreal has about 1.902 million in cap space available. If Markov's salary goes to LTIR that brings us up to 7.652 million in cap space to work with over the next 2-4 months. Sounds like a lot, but after this trade it really isn't. We'd still be taking on more salary than we're giving away after you consider we'd have to recall Curtis Sanford's 0.6 million dollar salary from the minors. We'd be left with about 0.4 million in cap space by my quick calculations, in other words, not enough for a call up in case of injury. The other problem that arrises is what happens when Markov comes back? Campbell isn't some guy who can be bought out with one year left, or traded away to a team who can eat the cap number, he's signed for 7 more seasons at the insane 7.14 million per season mark. Read that again, SEVEN seasons. Trading for Campbell would all but force Montreal to say good bye to Andrei Markov as a Canadien, as there's just no way you can find a sucker to take on Campbell's salary twice. Markov is the only tradable salary aside from Cammalleri that would put us back near the cap for next season. Terrifying thought isn't it? For purely financial reasons this trade just can not happen.

Denis Grebeshkov (my proposal)

Proposed trade: Denis Grebeshkov to Montreal, Sergei Kostitsyn and a 2nd or 3rd round pick to Edmonton.

Edmonton's take: Edmonton has 4 very adept puck moving defensemen. The one they likely would like to move is Lubomir Visnovsky, but his salary in the salary cap era makes it a far more difficult venture and Edmonton would likely have to take a loss with the trade. Grebeshkov is signed to a much more reasonable salary, and is an RFA next season, so he's both the easiest and most likely to be traded. Much has been made of the pairing of Sergei Kostitsyn and Patrick Kane, but many have forgotten that Edmonton's Sam Gagner was also part of that trio, and unlike Kane, has struggled to adapt fully to the NHL game. Sergei and Sam had major chemistry in junior and it's very likely that Edmonton would be interested in reuniting them to establish consistency from both players. If it works Edmonton could go from 2 good scoring lines to 3, which could help them compete right now in the Northwest division, which is weaker than previous years with Colorado rebuilding. The draft pick sweetens the deal for Edmonton as Grebeshkov has established himself thus far as a MUCH better NHL player than Kostitsyn. Along with this, Edmonton gains over 2 million in cap space to be used later, probably at the deadline to help put them into the playoffs.

Montreal's take: Losing Sergei at this point is probably a good thing, and to maximize his loss by bringing in a good defender like Grebeshkov at a time when Markov is down would be one of the better moves a general manager in the NHL makes all year. Grebeshkov has good size at 6'0, 209 lbs, although I've seen him listed as high as 6'2. He has a ton of poise with the puck on the blue line, and filled in great for Visnovsky last year in Edmonton on the first wave of the powerplay. He doesn't have a bullet shot, but he is an excellent skater, has great vision and passing ability, is defensively responsible and not afraid to get physical. I'm not a cap expert, but from what I've seen on other teams, when Markov comes back, only his salary for the remaining games counts against the cap. This means that in all likelihood Grebeshkov's modest 3.15 million dollar cap hit will fit right under the cap all year long. This also gives us options at the trade deadline if Markov is back and lighting it up, as we could acquire a top 6 forward for Grebeshkov for a playoff run, or keep him for depth on defense. Who knows. I see this trade as a win for both teams, and if we're really struggling 10-20 games into the season I would be delighted to see Gainey pull of this deal.

The Sky Is Falling!

2009-10-02T15:58:00.005-04:00

So it seems as if these are the only types of clothes we're going to see Andrei Markov wearing for the next two to four months. For the second game in a row at the Air Canada Center in Toronto Markov has suffered a devastating injury. Memories of the end of last season are flashing in the minds of all Montreal Canadiens fans, but we have to remember how different this team is. For starters we have more depth on defense this year than last. Remember that last year Mathieu Schneider was also injured against Toronto, and the loss of both our big power play guys was too much to handle for a fragile team. This year we have much more depth on defense, and it's very lucky we do.

Last year the Pittsburgh Penguins were forced to play without both Ryan Whitney and Sergei Gonchar for most of the season, and while I'm not saying the Canadiens will win the cup this year, there are important parallels to draw in this situation. Pittsburgh didn't panic when faced with this adversity, and although Michel Therrien was fired as head coach, the Penguins didn't sell the farm for an offensive defenseman to come in as a temporary replacement. They put their faith in young Kris Letang and Alex Goligoski. The Penguins were a bubble team for the first half of the season, but this expanded responsibility forced Kris Letang especially to become the player he has the potential to be. Goligoski also improved from this experience, and we'll see that more this year as he gets a shot with the big club. The maturation of Letang and Goligoski allowed Ray Shero to trade highly coveted Ryan Whitney to the Ducks for Chris Kunitz and a top prospect in Eric Tangradi. In all likelihood Yannick Weber will be called up from Hamilton in the next few days to occupy the 7th defenseman slot, and he'll draw into the lineup soon enough to play small minutes on the 3rd pairing along with powerplay time alongside Spacek on the first wave.

Unlike last season we have a lot of depth on defense in the organization. We poached a division rival's #1 defenseman in the offseason in Jaroslav Spacek, and at the beginning of the season Roman Hamrlik won't be as tired as he was last year, so we have two good guys for a first pairing. Josh Gorges is used to playing a top 4 role from last season, and Ryan O'Byrne also seems ready to take a bigger role with the club. Hal Gill and Paul Mara need to have their ice time kept lower than it was last night, I think everyone who saw that game can agree to that. Unlike last season we don't have to depend on Patrice Brisebois to play beyond his years, and with all due respect to Bob Gainey, we have a much better coach manning the bench this year, who can insulate the defense by changing the way Montreal plays. We also have a glutton of prospects who can fill in if need be in Weber, Subban, Carle and if desperate and decimated by injury, even Bell and Benoit. Obviously no one in the organization can replace Markov, but this isn't a death sentence as some would have you believe.

This team will be stronger by the end of this season, and going on in the next few seasons because of this injury. Am I'm not happy that Markov got injured, don't get me wrong, I'm devastated. But I refuse to pack up and throw this season down the toilet because of it, we need to see this as an opportunity to improve.

Why Hal Gill Won't Be Booed at the Bell

2009-09-30T19:53:00.005-04:00

Hal Gill, perhaps the most questioned signing Bob Gainey made in July, and for good reason. Hal had already been booed out of one major Canadian hockey city, and gained a reputation for being a pylon in his own zone. But since then Hal Gill has had a bit of a renaissance in both the way he plays, and in the way he is perceived by NHL managers.

When Gill was with Toronto he was forced to be a #4 defenseman, playing 20 or more minutes in the season in which he was booed out of town, and a bit less the season before. In Toronto it would probably come as a surprise to most Leafs fans that Gill was a plus player, a +11 over two seasons, although he was just even in his second season in Toronto when forced to play more minutes. Gill was also more focused on offense (40 points in 145 games is a lot for Gill), as well as physicality in Toronto. While that may sound like a good thing, Gill's lack of skating ability led to being caught out of position while pinching, as well as while making hits at ill informed times.

When Gill was traded to Pittsburgh he was coming to a team with much more depth on defense than Toronto, and he was slotted into the 6th defensive spot. With less ice time and better coaching, Gill reformed his game. Hits dropped, offense dropped, and his +/- went to +27 over 124 games (playoffs included). All of a sudden Gill was lauded in the media as a shut down defenseman, and people started noticing that his strength in front of the net, and active stick work in his own zone helped Marc-Andre Fleury immensely.

In Montreal, despite his pay, Gill is the 6th or 7th defenseman depending on how well Gorges and O'Byrne play. This is the element in which Gill excels, am I saying he'll win the Norris? Obviously not, but he'll be a plus player, probably in double digits and probably get around 9 points. His stick work will valued on the penalty kill all year long and Montreal fans will come to appreciate him as an asset.

The Sagas of Max Pacioretty and Sergei Kostitsyn

2009-09-29T11:56:00.008-04:00

Two of our Montreal Canadiens have taken very different paths this year. I clearly don't have the experience to question Jacques Martin, but I do have some objections to the way things have gone down.

Max Pacioretty has been the golden boy for the Canadiens in this year's training camp. He's worked hard over the summer, packed on some muscle and come into camp ready to compete. This has some fans delirious with excitement over his potential, and thrilled that he's pencilled into the top line on the Canadiens alongside Gomez and Gionta, but I'm not one of them. Max is a great prospect, a level headed kid with loads of talent and a projectable frame, but he's 20 years old. As you can see in his TSN page that I linked to, he only managed 9 goals between the AHL and NHL last year in 71 pro games. They didn't record his shooting percentage in the AHL, but in the big leagues it was a whopping 5.26%. Now it's extremely obvious that we have to give Patches the benefit of the doubt because he was a rookie, but in the interest of comparison, Tom "stone hands" Kostopoulos had a shooting percentage of 6.61% last season. It's clear that Montreal wants Max to be a goal scoring power forward, but in order to get there Max needs to develop his shot in the AHL. I'm very sure of this because despite playing top line minutes with talented linemates and diminished competition, Max was unable to convert a single time in the preseason. It's not all negative obviously, or he'd be in Hamilton already, his work along the boards has been great, and he's shown he has the wheels to keep up with Gomez and Gionta. But his puck control is still not great, and he shows how green he is in the offensive zone when he has a scoring chance. He seems to get nervous and in that category Max hasn't impressed me. If he does stay in the NHL this season, at least Martin has made the right decision to make him a top six forward, because playing 3rd and 4th line minutes while splitting time in the pressbox a la Carbo is terrible for the development of such a young player. I'm still high on Max's long term potential, but it pains me to see the Montreal organization make the same mistake over and over. Promoting people too young leads to the 2008-09 seasons of Price, O'Byrne, and Sergei Kostitsyn. I hope I'm dead wrong that this is a mistake, and Pacioretty lights it up, but the part of me that doesn't think with my heart says there's no way Pacioretty can compete with other top line forwards in the NHL at this point, not to mention top tier defenders.

Sergei Kostitsyn's fate this season is much different. Coming into camp rehabbing off season surgery Sergei was rumoured to be out of shape. However when Sergei was finally cleared to play, contrary to what many Habs fans would want you to believe, he played alright for a first game back against Ottawa the night we got blown out 6-1. The next day Sergei missed the team bus to Quebec City, as he was apparently stuck in traffic. My first reaction was to excuse this but Sergei has lived in Montreal most of the last 2 seasons, he should have compensated for traffic like every other player. Once in Quebec City however he played excellent against the Bruins. Lining up on the third line with David Desharnais he was one of the best players on either team. He was skating swiftly getting into confrontations and winning puck battles. It seemed like he'd woken up and came to play. After being scratched for the game against the Penguins Sergei was called out during practice for not being in the right position, which was also caught on video. Despite being reamed out by the coach, Sergei was back in the lineup against the Bruins the next game, and once again was one of the better players on the ice. Again playing most of the game on the third line, his first shift in a top 6 role he and Tomas Plekanec caught Tim Thomas sleeping off a faceoff and Sergei banging in a goal. It seemed that despite playing well in two straight games the writing was on the wall that Jacques Martin didn't like Sergei's attitude, and Sergei wasn't buying into the system well enough to stick with the big club. However when Sergei was sent down was awkward timing, as it was right before a team building retreat in Caledon, Ontario. Perhaps the coaching staff felt that his bad attitude would have a negative impact on the team building excercises, but to me it seemed like the lazy way out. Instead of recognizing the talent Kostitsyn has and attempting to adjust his attitude personally, Martin shifted the responsibility to Guy Boucher in Hamilton. It's also a possibility that Martin was sending a message to the rest of the team that bad attitudes won't be tolerated, but it doesn't sit well with me. A short time later Sergei Kostitsyn refused to report to the Bulldogs, and through a representative (not identified but likely Don "I constantly move my clients and I'm a money grubbing asshole" Meehan) informed Bob Gainey that he wanted to be traded out of Montreal. While I think Sergei was treated slightly unfairly this year in the WAY he was sent down, especially since Pacioretty did not earn his spot, and Gregory Stewart had a terrible camp until his last few shifts, I have to ask the question, who does he think he is? Sergei is a talented 22 year old player, but demanding a trade after being sent on a very obviously temporary trip to the minors at his age? Give me a break. I find this incredibly hard to take because I really like Sergei as a player, his style is rough, a little dirty and he has a great nose for the net, not to mention great vision. But Max Lapierre faced a similar though less harsh in timing demotion two years ago, but he never batted an eyelash. He took it like a man, worked his ass off in Hamilton until the Canadiens had no choice but to bring him back up. I'm disappointed in you Sergei. And this is a fan of yours speaking.

As for what will result from this trade request, I think Gainey hinted during his interviews today as to what the outcome could be. Most importantly to me Gainey didn't seem to angry about it. This tells me that he understands that Sergei is still a young, overemotional person who's passion sometimes gets in the way of making proper decisions. Gainey also stated that he doesn't see this trade request as a top priority. Bob knows how the NHL works, and he isn't going to trade Sergei when his value is as low as it could possibly be. Despite what TSN would have you believe with Bob McKenzie giving him advice on the air, this isn't a rookie GM we're talking about here. You could see in Bob's veiled smile that he already knows exactly what's going to happen here. Eventually Sergei is going to calm down, he'll report to Hamilton and play well, probably on the first line with Maxwell, and if his attitude adjusts he may even wear the CH again this very season, although I'm sure the fans at the Bell Centre will give him a nice round of boos to start. Worst comes to worst, once Kostitsyn starts to play better in Hamilton, Bob will package him in a trade at some point in the season for something he thinks he needs to add to the team.

As for those who think this situation is unique to Montreal, and that management is somehow to blame in entirety, pointing out all the prospects Montreal has lost to supposed "mismanagement", Ilja Zubov of the Senators has done the exact same thing as Sergei Kostitsyn today. Upon being sent down to Binghamton, Zubov demanded a trade, and he doesn't even have the questionable production in the big leagues that Sergei has! So we can stop being down on the Habs for imaginary reasons, and look forward to how the season may unfold. Let's hope that this small drama will be the only off ice issue we have to look at in 2009-10.

The Worst Predictions You'll See! [Eastern Conference]

2009-09-13T22:41:00.013-04:00

Man, did I keep my promise or what? As soon as I predict Anaheim finishing ahead of San Jose, they go out and get Heatley. Obviously Doug Wilson was afraid of how ominous my predictions were, and he knew he had to get Joe Thornton the highest scoring Canadian player in the game to slot on his wing. Well there go my predictions for at least one division in the West, as just a couple of points lost by Dallas and gained by San Jose over the course of the season could see Dallas on the outside looking in, and San Jose walking away with the president's trophy once more... [sigh]... And of course Nashville picked up Bouillon, which if you listen to some media reports out of Quebec will vault them into the playoffs somehow. This year the East kind of leveled off, the bad teams got a bit better, and the teams that were amazing last year like Boston and Washington got a little thinner. Here goes another round of predictions that are sure to be wrong!

15th New York Islanders - I don't think anyone is going to disagree with me here. I could have been bold and said something like, the Penguins or something, but this is the safe choice because the Islanders are basically an AHL team masquerading as the NHL's worst club. The addition of John Tavares is going to be nice in the future, but as for putting W's in the win column I highly doubt he'll have much of an affect this season. Like Stamkos last year, I'm guessing that Tavares will have a bit of trouble adjusting to the big league and it'll take some time for him to build the necessary muscle to compete every night. I'm guessing he'll get somewhere in the range of 45 points, probably with 25 goals as he'll start to score in bunches near the end of the season. The fact that this will probably sit him at first on the Isles' forwards in goals, and probably second in points behind Kyle Okposo, is exactly why this team sucks. Too many young players who've been rushed along all on the team at the same time, throw in a couple played out veterans and you have the worse version of the Phoenix Coyotes, only with a better powerplay anchored by Mark Streit. Streit is definitely the high point for this team, and to be honest I didn't think there was a chance in the world that he was actually as good as he looked two years ago in Montreal, but offensively he is magic, especially on the PP. The craziest thing about Mark, is that he was a plus last year on the league's worst team! The goaltending still perplexes me, one day they sign Dwayne Roloson to a contract that's a bit hefty for his age and pedigree, and then the next they sign Martin Biron to a really nice looking contract. It seems to me like management is extremely worried about the health of Rick DiPietro on a long term basis. DiPietro has missed 101 games to injury in since he signed his massive mistake of a contract in the summer of '06, and I can see why the Islanders are worried. Chronic knee, groin and concussion issues have surfaced and I'm going to predict that DiPietro will play less that 5 more years of his contract before being forced into retirement. With Roloson and Biron the Islanders will no longer need to have the revolving door of AHL goaltenders that we've seen the last couple seasons, but neither are top flight goalies that are going to consistently steal games, especially with a defensive corps that boasts it's second best guy is Andy Sutton (also injury prone).

14th Florida Panthers - Jay Bouwmeester is gone. Olli Jokinen is gone. It's rumoured that Nathan Horton wants out. What is wrong with this team? Florida has been pretty much downright terrible since it's unlikely cinderella cup run in 1996. There are bright spots on the roster with Horton, Booth and Weiss making up a pretty solid first line, while Cory Stillman is still a solid player about half the games he plays in. It went unnoticed by most, but Michael Frolik actually put up very respectable numbers as a rookie, it's too bad for the Panthers that after 4 seasons in the NHL Rostislav Olesz does nothing but decline. Theoretically the Panthers could have a nice top 6 group of forwards if all these guys have good seasons, but it's very difficult to imagine. On defense it's a veritable hodgepodge of 3rd and 4th defenders Offensively Ballard and McCabe are not bad options, but the defense doesn't have any true top pairing defensemen in the remaining corps of Seidenberg, Leopold, Koistinen, Allen, Skoula (tryout), or Backman (tryout). To me the defense looks good for a lackluster or listless game, with enough puck movers to make the first pass and play out the time remaining, but when pressure is applied the only guy that's really defensively sound is Seidenberg, and he's really only had one good season! Vokoun in goal is another bright spot, as he seems to excel on teams that are fighting for the playoffs, but not making it. As a Canadiens fan however, I'm excited to see how the loss of goaltending coach Pierre Groulx effects the goaltending in Florida. I guess the gist of what I'm saying about the Panthers is, your logo is one of the coolest in pro sports, but if the best you can muster is an identical record to the Canadiens when everything that could possibly go wrong went wrong in Montreal last year, you suck.

13th Atlanta Thrashers - I feel bad placing the Thrashers so low, because for the first time since they became a team they seem to honestly be trying to improve in the long run, and not patch up holes just so they can fill up a roster. Kovalchuk is the second or third best sniper in the league, above or below Heatley depending on who you ask, and he still doesn't have an elite playmaker to help him out, but the players around him are finally getting better. The ageless Slava Kozlov is back again, and I don't know how long he can keep up his offensive prowess but he shows no real sign of slowing down. Bryan Little is likely to either improve or stay about the same, and he has some better players surrounding him in Nik Antropov and likely the streaky but insanely talented Maxim Afinogenov. Rich Peverley is likely to fill out the top six after finding chemistry with Kovalchuk last season after coming over from Nashville. It's not a great top two lines, but it's better than Atlanta has seen since the Heatley days. The defense has gotten MUCH stronger in the offseason, and I would have said this even if they hadn't gone out and Pavel Kubina for Garnet Exelby (who sucks, no matter what Leafs fans like to think, he's a crappy hockey player, period exclamation point). The reason I think the Thrashers defense is so much better is that they have a one year older, healthy Zach Bogosian. As an 18 year old last season this kid was able to out muscle most opposing forwards, and offensively keep up and develop chemistry with Ilya Kovalchuk. He is one talented kid, and at 19 I think is probably the best defender on the team, ahead of Kubina and Ron Hainsey. In goal Kari Lehtonen doesn't win me over. His reputation for a lack of conditioning reminds me of Pasi Nurminen, which is a very bad thing. Groin issues have already become a major recurring problem, as have back injuries. And speaking of back injuries, I just checked Lehtonen's TSN page and guess what I've found? He just had back surgery and is out indefinitely! 200 games in 4 years since he was supposed to be Atlanta's starting goaltender doesn't impress me. Speaking of being unimpressed, despite being constantly touted as the best teammate in the NHL, Johan Hedberg at 36 is not even close to good enough to become the starter on this team for an indefinite amount of time. In fact he was one of the worst goaltenders in the league last year, and I doubt his capabilities to even be a back up. I'm guessing this is why Manny Legace and his noted attitude problems is on a tryout with this team. I notice I've been writing a lot more on the Eastern conference teams so far, and this is why it's taking me forever to get this post out, I guess I pay more attention to the East Coast!

12th Buffalo Sabres - Because of the evening out of the East during the summer, this is where the playoff fight starts, and almost everything I write is probably bullshit. A single point either way could move a team up or down a few space, so if you're a fan of any of these teams that don't make the dance, try not to be offended. I've heard countless predictions this September about how the Sabres are going to make the playoffs and finish second in the Northeast division. What I'd like to know is... how? Buffalo seems to have a policy to lose it's MVP every season or two, and that happened this offseason when Jaroslav Spacek darted to divisional rival Montreal. Two seasons in a row Buffalo has lost it's #1 defenseman, and they haven't brought in anything special to replace this void. If you want to know how badly the Sabres did this offseason, here's an easy way to sum it up: NHL.com had a little daily quiz last week, which Buffalo Sabre is the best new addition? Mike Grier, Cody McCormick, Steve Montador or Brad Larson. Look over those names for a second. A 4th liner, two AHLers and a 7th to 8th defenseman. These are the replacements for Ales Kotalik, Jaroslav Spacek, Maxim Afinogenov, and Teppo Numminen? And you think you're going to make the playoffs? Are you @#$%ing kidding me!?!? But, Sabres fans will say; Tim Connolly will stay healthy this year, and he's a legitimate top line player. Bull. Tim Connolly will not stay healthy, it just isn't gonna happen, try again. But, Ryan Miller is one of the best goaltenders in the NHL, and the only reason we missed the playoffs last year is because he got injured! Ryan Miller is a pretty good goaltender, but he's vastly overrated and I haven't seen anything from him that impresses me that much. As for his injury being the only reason Buffalo didn't overtake Montreal last year (which I've heard non-stop all summer from Habs haters), is complete bullshit. Miller missed 17 games all season, Price missed 16, and had lingering injuries from January onward because he rushed back. It doesn't matter WHEN the injuries occur, just because Miller was injured at a crucial part of the season doesn't mean his 17 games was any worse of a loss than Price's 16. Any way you look at it, Buffalo is banking on severe increases in production from a number of young players this season, and the team is weaker both at forward and defense than last season.

11th Ottawa Senators - Gone are the days of one elite line in the nations capital, and finally for the first time in team history there seems to be the promise of a balanced scoring attack. Dany Heatley was finally traded, most likely just to screw with my last batch of predictions, and in comes Milan Michalek and Jonathan Cheechoo. Michalek is a nice pickup for Ottawa, and it seems like he'll slot into the top line with Alfredsson and Spezza. Michalek to me is a slightly more consistent but less talented Andrei Kostitsyn. He's put up some solid numbers in his short NHL career, but let's be honest, he's been playing with Joe Thornton! Jason Spezza is a good playmaker, but he's not near the same level as Thornton. Michalek has likely hit his peak as a 55-65 point player, and while that's nothing to spit at, it's not Dany Heatley. Cheechoo is interesting, but by all accounts a throw in and salary dump for San Jose. There's no way than anyone, even Ottawa expects him to get back to 50 goal form, but a 20 goal season is likely expected. The problem with this new balanced scoring or so it's assumed in Ottawa is that their second line is entirely 'ifs' and 'maybes'. Cheechoo could theoretically bounce back and get 25 goals and 55 points, but with a 3rd line checking center getting paid and getting the minutes of a 2nd line center in Mike Fisher, and the always enigmatic Alex Kovalev as linemates it seems unlikely to me. Both Fisher and Kovalev are prone to extended scoring droughts, and Kovalev's constant back and forth between invisibility and dominance is hard on linemates, and with no real passer or even elite player on the second line, it's going to be a long year of Kovalev attempting to go in all alone against four defenders, and either putting himself or his linemates offside, or losing the puck altogether. The third line is pretty good with Foligno and Ruutu rotating at left wing, Kelly at center and Neil on the right. It's not a bad line, but I don't see many goals being chipped in. Pascal Leclaire is a definitive upgrade in goal over Gerber and Auld, but his tendency toward injury should be a troubling thought for Ottawa fans when Brian Elliot is all you have to replace him. The defense is also troublesome, as it's filled with 2nd pairing defensemen and one top pairing guy in Anton Volchenkov, who might be the best defensive defenseman in the East. Chris Phillips is supposed to be in his prime at 31 but has been forced to play too many minutes and is slowing down. Chris Campoli is a bargain at his salary and a lot of upside, but he's still young and inconsistent and would be best served on the 3rd pairing and on the powerplay. As pointed out by the venerable Mike Boone, Brian Lee sucks. AHL defenseman at this point. Same goes for Alex Picard. Filip Kuba is probably a little underrated, but he's by no means a top pairing guy. He's very soft in his own end and despite a good start last year, isn't as good offensively as his number would lead you to believe. Inconsistency will be the mark of the Senators this season as the second line will alternate with dominance and complete invisibility.

10th Tampa Bay Lightning - The Lightning improved drastically in the offseason. The addition of Hedman and Ohlund to the defensive corps is just what the doctor ordered, and putting Tanguay on the top line with his fellow French Canadians Lecavalier and St. Louis makes for a very intimidating top end offense. This is assuming that Lecavalier and Tanguay are both healthy this year, which is far from guaranteed. Kurtis Foster is also an underrated pickup on defense, and it's about time the Lightning rounded out their defense since it was atrocious last season. Steven Stamkos will likely improve quite a bit this coming season, and having the grit of Ryan Malone beside him on a line will really improve his numbers. Offensively this team should theoretically be very dangerous, with a bunch of capable puck movers on the back end in Hedman, Ohlund, Meszaros, Ranger and Krajicek, the powerplay should have little to no problem lighting the

lamp on a regular basis. The problems I see here, and the reason I don't feel right putting them in the playoffs start with coaching. Rick Tocchet wasn't worth much as an assistant coach in Phoenix or Colorado, and he only looked good last year compared to Barry Melrose, who was 20 years behind the game. Even in Tampa's best games last year, there was no semblance of a system. This organization has made several critical mistakes in the last couple years, allowing Len Barrie to be involved in the organization in any capacity, letting go of Jay Feaster, and firing John Tortorella. Torts is an excellent coach and motivator, and he's the kind of guy you need to whip a young team into shape. Aside from the coaching problem there's the goaltending situation. Every year it seems like Tampa Bay has a new goaltender or even a new tandem. Mike Smith was alright last year in the limited playing time he got before being concussed, but Kari Ramo is nowhere near close to ready for NHL duty. Antero Nittymaki was brought on board to give Mike Smith a solid backup, but I don't see

9th New Jersey Devils - As far as I know, I'm the only person who's predicted that the Devils are going to miss the playoffs, I guess you could call me bold, or stupid. It seems ridiculous to count out the Devils with Zach Parise becoming one of the best players in the NHL, along with one of the best scorers, but I have a few reasons. Brent Sutter is a fantastic coach, and he fled to Calgary to be closer to his family, to be replace by Jacques Lemaire. Brodeur may like the new coach, but I'm going to venture a guess and say that most of the young forward corps really won't. This team had finally started to shake off the reputation of a boring trap team with an electrifying top line of Parise with Zajac and Langenbrunner, and then they bring in the guy who basically created the trap. The defensive corps in NJ is no longer elite as it was when Lemaire was last there, it's a ragtag group of average and blew average defenders with Paul Martin and Johnny Oduya being the only really good players, but both probably better suited to second pairing duty instead of first. Colin White is intensely overpaid as he's just too slow for the post-lockout NHL, and he's also become a little injury prone. One of the common themes in New Jersey seems to be aging, as in this team's core is aging. Brian Rolston showed last year that he'd lost a step, and will likely struggle to get anywhere close to his minnesota numbers that earned him his more-than-what-Martin Havlat-is-making contract. Brendan Shanahan may improve a bit when he has the advantage of playing a full season, but 20 goals and a top six forward spot at 40 is a lot to ask. While those two elderly chaps taking top six forward spots is troubling, they don't compare in the least to an aging Martin Brodeur. At 37 it's extremely clear that Brodeur is no longer at the top of his game. He can still steal games often, and put on spectacular performances from time to time, but he's slowing down visibly. New Jersey hasn't made it out of the first round for two years running, despite having home ice advantage both times. More troubling than that, they haven't made it out of the second round since the won the cup in 2003. I pay attention to playoff hockey very closely, and every year at the least since the lockout, but the postseason Martin Brodeur looks very tired. He's struggled in the playoffs lately when it's been his reputation to shine during them. At this point in his career Brodeur has to make a choice, either play 70+ games and be useless by the end of the regular season, or knock it back to 55-60 games and give yourself a chance at the post season. It's apparent that with the signing of Yann Danis, the Devils see no apparent problem and are looking to start Brodeur in another 70+ game season. The Devils continually hemorrhage talent, and they've managed to stay competitive through good drafting, but things are starting to wear a little thin. Ilkka Pikkarainen was brought over from Finland to replace Brian Gionta, and although he scored 24 goals in 54 games for Helsinki he also had 149 PIM, which is not a positive.

8th Toronto Maple Leafs - And now it's time to get some bashing from fellow Habs fans. Yes my friends, the Leafs have a good shot of making the post season this year. It's undeniable that the defense has become much more solid with the marquee additions of Komisarek and Beauchemin. Despite the insistence of many fellow Montreal fans, Komisarek does not suck. He had an off year after lingering injury, much like Michael Ryder did the year before. He turns over the puck a lot, but he's a punishing bruiser who blocks tons of shots. Beauchemin might be overrated, we don't know yet because he's had the advantage of playing all his best years with Scott Niedermayer, who happens to be the second best defenseman in the NHL over the last 10 years. Scott could have made him look better than he actually is, as Markov did with Komisarek, but it's up to both of them to prove people wrong. Either way though, Komisarek and Beauchemin are unfathomably better than Jonas Frogren and Jeff Finger. Jonas Gustavsson is very clearly the most overrated free agent signing of the year, as Fabian Brunnstrom was last season, but to be honest, there is no way in hell he could possibly be worse than Curtis Joseph. So that's a big improvement in the goaltending department. Speaking of goalies, mark this prediction down in your notebook of things to throw back in my face later, Vesa Toskala will be a lot better this season. Vesa has played his best hockey when someone was there to challenge him for the starting job, and he hasn't had that in Toronto between Raycroft and Joseph. With an improved defense and offseason surgery to repair lingering injuries, expect Toskala to return to numbers similar to what he posted in San Jose. I wouldn't be too scared of taking Toskala in a fantasy league even, that's how much better I think he'll be. Up front is where Toronto should face some questions, but they always seem to score goals, likely at the expense of defense. Mikael Grabovski will hopefully prematurely retire after Travis Moen hits him at open ice and sends him flying 20 feet, but I doubt it. It's likely that the mostly young forward corps in Toronto will continue to gradually and slowly improve, with underrated players like Lee Stempniak, Matt Stajan, Niklas Hagman and Alexei Ponikarovsky supplying most of the scoring until Phil Kessel returns from injury. There aren't many players on the Leafs that can qualify as top line talent, the only one I really like other than Kessel in this regard is Ponikarovsky, who has a ton of size and isn't as shy as his old buddy Nik Antropov in using it around the net. There are a few people who've suggested that the Leafs might have trouble scoring this season with the loss of Antropov and Phil Kessel being out until at least November, but I don't see much of a loss. Some players will likely step up and the defense is much tighter, so they won't need to score as much. And outside Antropov who have they really lost? Dominic Moore? Who cares. Jason Blake will likely be top 5 in the league in shots fired again this season, and absolute bottom in shooting percentage. I don't see him as much more than a stop gap measure to fill out the top six while Toronto rebuilds in the coming years. Speaking of rebuilding, what happened to that? Phil Kessel was brought into Toronto at a very steep price, two 1st round picks and a 2nd rounder. It's interesting to me that I read an article in the Toronto star the other day about this very phenomenon in Toronto, a new GM comes in, promises to build the team the right way, slowly through the draft, then promptly trades away a bunch of first round picks for anything but sure bets. Some have suggested it's not a big loss because Toronto sucks at drafting anyway, so does that mean Luke Schenn, Nazem Kadri and Tuukka Rask suck? I saw Rask play just the other night, and I can easily vouch for him being a talent that could easily oust Tim Thomas from the crease in Boston this year. Toronto's bad drafting is a bit of a myth, the problem is that they ship off all their good prospects for Owen Nolan every once in awhile. Burke has fallen into the trap that every Leafs GM falls into, and Kessel will not be a 40 goal scorer in Toronto without an elite playmaker like Marc Savard feeding him game in and out. Kessel has elite speed, shiftiness and an elite wrist shot, but he apparently has a bad attitude, and his stats were definitely inflated by a dominant Bruins team and two elite playmakers in Savard and Krejci centering him all season. Toronto has no such player to help him out. The Leafs are going to make the playoffs this year, but they aren't going anywhere, and it's at the expense of the future. Why is it that whenever Toronto makes the playoffs it's ALWAYS at the expense of the future?

7th New York Rangers - The Rangers got rid of Scott Gomez who wasn't working out on Broadway, and used that money to overpay Marion Gaborik. Glen Sather bewilders me, one minute he pulls of a salary dump of epic proportions in shipping Gomez to Montreal, and a second later he blows the hole situation by paying Gaborik 7.5 million to play 20 games a season. Gaborik is one hell of a talent, but he doesn't take conditioning seriously and has massive problems with his groin that continue to haunt his career. Ales Kotalik, Chris Higgins and Vaclav Prospal are very good additions to the roster, and its likely that Higgins will be forced to curb his party habits with John Tortorella at the helm. The Rangers are still very weak at the center position however, because Chris Drury is not a 1st line forward, even with his leadership qualities. Dubinsky is a third line center at best, and both Prospal and Higgins are used to playing wing instead of taking faceoffs now. On the wings Avery will continue to cause havoc after he returns from the knee injury he recently suffered. Other forwards on the Rangers don't really impress, as many character guys have been lost in the off season, notably Blair Betts and Fredrik Sjostrom. In goal the Rangers are as strong as the team has ever been, Henrik Lundqvist is absolutely amazing. I have no doubts that the tandem of Lundqvist and Valiquette will continue to split the games roughly 62-20 and bring the Rangers into the postseason once more. Defense could go either way this year as there is potential for rebound seasons from Rozsival and Redden, while Girardi and Marc Staal are continually improving. Redden is less likely than Rozsival to have a rebound season, as the MSG crowd will get on him early and often. The Rangers defense is also not filled out as the 4 I've named are the only 4 that are officially on the team and signed to contracts. This means either the Rangers will have to pick the leftovers from free agency, or they'll promote a couple young guys like Michael Del Zotto or Bobby Sanguinetti. Because of the ineptitude of Glen Sather, this team is no closer to a championship than it has been since he took over, but because of Lundqvist this team continues to make the playoffs and be a potential second round team.

6th Philadelphia Flyers - How do the flyers continually draft ridiculous talent down in the bottom of the first round? It's a question no one can really answer, but because of it they're insanely deep at forward and have two of the best young centers in the game in Carter and Richards, along with another up and comer in Claude Giroux. Up front on this team is a wealth of elite centers, the previously mentioned Carter and Richards along with Daniel Briere and Giroux make up an embarrassingly deep squad. However someone needs to switch to the wing, because the offseason departure of Mike Knuble and the trade of Lupul for Pronger at the draft weakened the wings severely. Simon Gagne and Scott Hartnell are the only wingers left on the club that are certifiable top 6 guys, and although Gagne is an excellent 1st line left wing, his high salary combined with some of the centers make's it extremely difficult for the Flyers to upgrade the rest of their forward corps, which frankly is very thin. When Ian Laperriere is the best winger on your bottom two lines, at 35, you don't have much depth. The Flyers do have an option in this respect as James Van Riemsdyk seems to be ready for the NHL this season, but there are constant rumours about him being involved in a trade so who knows how long he'd be on the team should he make it. On defense the Flyers were absolutely fleeced at the draft for Chris Pronger, effectively losing 3 first round picks with the loss of Sbisa, a proven NHL scorer in Lupul, and another conditional pick. Pronger does make them better immediately however, and I guess Paul Holmgren believes this team is a Stanley Cup contender. I wouldn't disagree with him in theory, as the defense is very strong with Pronger, Timonen and Coburn making up the top three, but I just don't believe in Ray Emery right off the bat. He has a lot to prove this season but I've never liked his attitude, or his work ethic. Along with that I just don't think he's an elite goaltender, which seems to be a prerequisite to play goal for Philadelphia. When is the last time anyone can think of that the Flyers had a goalie worth his weight? I'm thinking Ron Hextall, and I'm thinking before he was traded to Quebec. That's a long freaking time. Until the Flyers wake up and get a goalie that isn't a bargain basement price and even out their lineup for once they aren't going to be winning any cups.

5th Carolina Hurricanes - For some reason Eric Staal only seems to fulfill his potential when Erik Cole is on the team. Well good news for Staal (and the Hurricanes by association), they're both playing in Raleigh this year. Carolina is one of the teams I hate the most in the NHL, first because they're Stanley Cup was basically given to them by horrid officiating and crucial injuries to star players against every team they played against, and secondly because they terrorize the Canadiens and it always seems the calls go their way. But there's no denying that this team found some great chemistry last season, and they have great potential. Jussi Jokinen, Tuomo Ruutu and Sergei Samsonov are all successful reclamation projects by the Hurricanes, and they add to a potent, balanced attack up front that also features the ageless wonders Ray Whitney and Rod Brind'Amour. Rod had a tough year last year, suffering through lingering injuries he could never get his fitness level to where it usually is and where he's comfortable, so when he usually would have had more endurance than other players he was getting exhausted and caught making mistakes which led to his big negative +/- rating. This season a healthy Rod should be reinvigorated and ready for action leading to a deeper Hurricanes offense. Some grit was added in the offseason with Tom Kostopoulos and Stephane Yelle coming in for seemingly 4th line duty, and I can't praise Kostopoulos enough, despite his hands of stone. The defense as always in Carolina seems to be a strength in numbers kind of thing, although the currently injured Joni Pitkanen has developed nicely in Carolina into their #1 defenseman. When he returns to action the defense will be much stronger on the powerplay and at even strength. The biggest strength for the Canes this year however is their goaltender coming into his prime years. Cam Ward struggled with the lofty expectations after his unlikely Stanley Cup championship in 2006, but finally last year was able to break out as one of the better goaltenders in the NHL. This is also an important year for Ward as he attempts to compete for a spot on the 2010 olympic team for Canada. He should be healthy and very motivated to prove himself to Steve Yzerman and company.

4th Boston Bruins - Boston has been tabbed by everyone I've read to repeat as champs of the Northeast division, and by many as Conference champions. Oh how familiar Boston's situation is. David Krejci, meet Tomas Plekanec. Tim Thomas, meet Carey Price. Blake Wheeler, meet Sergei Kostitsyn. Matt Hunwick, meet Ryan O'Byrne. Claude Julien, meet Guy Carbonneau. Yes expectations are booming after a dominant season in Boston, and my intuition tells me that there are way too many "ifs" for Boston to remain dominant this season, as lets face it, for a large portion of last season they had a horse shoe up their collective asses. Up front Marc Savard will turn in a similar season, as he's solid as a rock statistically, although his assist numbers have been going down, and might go down more with the departure of Kessel. Blake Wheeler is likely to suffer a sophomore slump, and his place in the depth chart might be overtaken by a healthy (for the time being) Marco Sturm. David Krejci will also be hard pressed to repeat his performance with line mate and sole 30 goal scorer on the Bruins Phil Kessel darting to Toronto. It's very common for a player who signs a contract right after a break out season to suffer a slight drop in production and a frustrating season, especially with a big salary increase (see Vanek, Thomas). Michael Ryder is looking at a bigger role this season, and probably more time with Marc Savard, especially on the powerplay. In fact he's the only Bruins forward I expect to have a better season this year statistically (aside from Marco Sturm obviously because he'll play more than 20 games this year). The departure of Kessel leaves Ryder and Sturm as the only natural goal scorers on the team. Recchi is ageless in his playing ability, but the production he displayed upon landing in Boston last season is unreasonable to expect this season. Chuck Kobasew will likely continue to chip in now and then and provide good complimentary scoring as usual, while Patrice Bergeron will continue to struggle to reacquire his scoring touch after too many major concussions. Bergeron is interesting to me, because he has the talent and smarts to be a 1st line player, but he's stuck in Boston behind Marc Savard and David Krejci, so he's forced to play a defensive role (which he also excels at), but is unable to get the ice time in offensive situations necessary to regain his former status. On defense Zdeno Chara will probably be just as good, as I see him as the best player on this team bar none, and a great leader. He always seems to score a goal at crucial times, and that shot of his is scary. Dennis Wideman is also an elite defenseman, but I'm inclined to believe it will be very tough for him to equal his output from last season. Part of the reason his totals were so high is because this team was rolling for almost the entire 82 game schedule, tons of chemistry and goals just seemed to flow into opposing team's nets. This year will be a bit tougher. Salary restrictions have hurt this team over the offseason, and the two key losses are Kessel and Axelsson. While Axelsson's offensive production is limited, he's an excellent penalty killer and role player. Boston overall just isn't as deep this season. Another focal point for regress is Tim Thomas, here's the biggest chunk of the horse shoe that was previously mentioned. Thomas' "style" of goaltending is very similar to Dominik Hasek, in that it's primarily based on flopping around aimlessly and counting on your unpredictability confounding the shooter. With a dominant defense that cleared out every rebound you could muster this seemed to work wonders last year, but Thomas was less than stellar against Carolina in the playoffs, and his career so far tells me that his luck was mostly due to the power of the Bruins and not his own play. Luckily for the Bruins, they have an NHL ready Tuukka Rask ready to take the helm should Thomas fail, so there's really nothing to worry about in goal, it just won't be as spectacular as last season. It's important to remember for Bruins fans that I'm not saying your team will be crap, I'm very worried about how good it still is, I just see too many similarities to Montreal of last season to follow the party line and predict another conference championship.

3rd Montreal Canadiens - Finally!! It took forever but we finally get to our Montreal Canadiens! Is this a homer pick? Absolutely. Do I care? Not in the slightest. The more of this team I see, the more I believe that this conclusion to the regular season is possible, even likely. Massive turnover will likely lead to a bit of a rocky start, although it seems like all our new guys are working well both together and with players from last year. I predicted about two weeks ago on Habs I/O that Brian Gionta would be the next captain of the Montreal Canadiens, and I'd like to reiterate that prediction here. When first acquired I wasn't so sure about Brian, but since seeing him play both on TV and live against the Penguins, I'm completely convinced that Gainey knew what he was doing this summer. This guy is a player, absolutely tenacious, wins every puck battle and possesses speed that kills. Gomez is growing on me greatly despite his hefty trade cost and salary cap room, he's a smart player that although it pains me to admit it, is probably better over the 82 regular season games to have in the lineup than Koivu at this point in both their careers. Gomez also has very good playoff numbers, which is a huge plus for me. Mike Cammalleri has been solid in the preseason, but in my opinion has yet to find his groove despite some really nice plays. I think he can and will be much better. Plekanec looks like he's been reinvigorated finally, and we won't be seeing the "little girl" anymore. Andrei Kostitsyn has displayed some chemistry with Cammalleri but there's room for improvement, I believe Kostitsyn will be the one who improves most in the first 20 games. The young Kostitsyn brother has really impressed me in limited preseason action. Against Boston in Quebec City he was one of the best players on the ice the entire game, and played like he knew he could lose his spot. Latendresse has improved his foot speed in the off season, and he's been laying out big hits left and right, and not putting himself out of position to make said hits, which is a new development in his game. D'agostini seems to be working much harder on the forecheck, and despite looking lost a little still, is coming back to backcheck more often than last season. His ability to get off a quick, hard wrister at high speeds and in traffic is going to be a valued commodity in Montreal this season. Maxim Lapierre has had a bit of an average camp, but seems to be getting better and is apparently nursing a bit of an injury. Travis Moen has also had an average camp, but his forechecking ability has been displayed well. Metropolit has had a solid camp and he's probably ensured that he'll keep his spot as the 4th line pivot. To me there's only one more forward spot up for grabs, on the 4th line, and it's a dogfight between Laraque, Stewart, Chipchura and Tom Pyatt. Personally with Moen in the lineup I'd like to see Laraque, his ego, his self righteousness and his salary shipped the hell out of town, and Stewart sent to Hamilton to muck it up there in favour of giving Chipchura a shot at the bigs (probably his last in Montreal), and keeping up Tom Pyatt as he's a better 4th line energy guy than either Laraque or Stewart. Pyatt has really impressed me in camp with his stick work, skating and all around tenacity on the puck. He seems to win puck battles constantly. On defense we've improved over last year despite what the talking heads on the Toronto Sports Network would like to think. As Topham of Lions in Winter has noted, Komisarek of 2007-08 would be a big loss, but last year's Komisarek is easily replaceable. Paul Mara does a better job on average defensively than Komisarek did last season, and he can actually make a first pass out of the zone which Komisarek either can't do, or doesn't have the confidence to do when playing with Markov. This is going to save Markov some energy and some hits as the season wears on, which bodes well for us. Spacek is an extremely solid pickup but offensively and defensively. It's nice when you can take a division rival's best defenseman and slot him into third on the depth chart! Spacek will hopefully inspire Hamrlik, as for once he'll have a very talented line mate, and one he's familiar with to boot! Spacek will allow Hamrlik to focus more on defense, and play a few less minutes a game, which will help him during the season as well. With those two pairings we're also able to bring Gorges down from 22 minutes a game to 20 or under, which he's more suited to. Paired with Hal Gill, Gorges is also likely to take less physical abuse. Gill is far from mobile, but from what I've seen so far I love his stick work and his play in front of the net on the penalty kill. The player who's impressed me the most this year in camp and preseason besides Gionta happens to be former goat, Ryan O'Byrne. Ryan has come in stronger and more focused, with a mean streak and sound defensive play. He's even jumped into the play to shoot a few times. I like the way he's developed over the summer. Our defense also becomes twice as potent since we don't have the sacred Breezer anymore. In goal there's absolutely nothing but promise. There are many who feel the need to be negative to either Price or Halak to boost the other, but I see no reason. Both are promising young goaltenders who will likely play in tandem this year, splitting the games about 52-30. Two young goaltenders who have the skill to be starting goaltenders in the NHL is a commodity most organizations can only wish for, we should stop being so pessimistic about it.

2nd Pittsburgh Penguins - The Stanley Cup champions lost a bit of depth up front in the off season with Petr Sykora and Miroslav Satan moving on, but with Kunitz and Guerin playing the whole season, the forward roster is actually better than last year. Keeping in mind that both Sykora and Satan were entirely useless in the post season, and the losses seem even less significant. Crosby will finally have a season with linemates that can convert on his passes, so look for him to post career highs this season. Malkin will likely miss Sykora on the second line, but seemed to find very good chemistry with Fedotenko last year. One top 6 forward spot seems to be open to competition and there may be a revolving door on Malkin's right wing with Tyler Kennedy, Matt Cooke, Maxim Talbot, Pascal Dupuis and Ryan Bayda if he signs all getting time on there. Next year Eric Tangradi may take this spot and excel, but this year it's unlikely. On defense Pittsburgh is set for a full year with Sergei Gonchar, which will drastically improve the powerplay, as well as the production of the forwards as Gonchar makes the transition game of the Penguins twice as good. Gonchar missing time last year ended up being a blessing for the Penguins, as Kris Letang was forced to step up in a big way offensively and he met the needs of the team head on. His development allowed Pittsburgh to trade Ryan Whitney for Chris Kunitz and Eric Tangradi. Alex Goligoski has also improved steadily and will be in the opening lineup for the Pens, which gives them three good to excellent puck movers. Brooks Orpik, Mark Eaton and Jay McKee round out the top 6 on defense. Despite the hype that occurred about him in the offseason, Rob Scuderi was an average defenseman at best, and is easily replaced by the veteran McKee, and at bargain basement price. Eaton is probably around the skill level that Hal Gill possesses, but he's a bit smaller so the penalty kill my take a slight hit, but with Gonchar healthy while Letang and Goligoski a year older and more mature they can afford a slight dip in penalty kill efficiency when the power play will be much better. In goal Marc-Andre Fleury continues to improve his consistency, and he's become a top tier goaltender for the Penguins. Backup Brent Johnson is a decent option, but he is an injury risk. Luckily it seems like the next option in goal for Pittsburgh, John Curry, is good enough to be an NHL backup. It also doesn't hurt this team that Sidney Crosby has become the best all around player in the NHL.

1st Washington Capitals - The Capitals managed 50 wins last season with a very inconsistent Jose Theodore and an oft injured Brent Johnson. This season it's likely that Simeon Varlamov will split time with Theodore on a close to equal balance, however I think Theodore will play more games because he is a veteran and despite his frequent bad play, has the ability to take over games single handedly. Fedorov and Kozlov have fled to Russia, and have been replaced by Mike Knuble and Brendan Morrison. Knuble offers a net presence on the top line of Ovechkin and Backstrom, and despite aging seems to consistently have better and better seasons. It's not unlikely at all that Knuble will bang in 30 of Ovechkin's 400+ shots. On the second line Alex Semin will be under pressure to have as good of a season as last year, hopefully with less injury. Tomas Fleischmann and Brooks Laich will likely both see time with Semin which will increase their capabilities of putting up points exponentially. Washington's offense is something to behold in sports today, when they turn it on it's absolutely magical. As Crosby is the best all around player in the NHL, Ovechkin is easily the most electrifying and most talented offensively. This team is only going to improve with age, let's all remember that Nicklas Backstrom was only 20 last year. The defense hasn't changed in the offseason, and that's both good and bad. Good in the respect that Mike Green will likely again run an amazing power play and score close to 30 goals and 80 points if he stays healthy, but bad in the fact that the defense in Washington is no where near elite defensively. Washington has what it takes to dominate teams in the regular season, but until they're able to tighten up defensively Bruce Boudreau to me is still an overrated coach who just lets his abundance of creative, offensive players run their own show without much of a system. At this point, until the Caps add a legitimate shut down presence I can't see them getting to the finals.

The Worst Predictions You'll See! [Western Conference]

2009-09-10T15:32:00.020-04:00

Every year you see hundreds of so called sports analysts on TV and in print that try to predict how the regular season will shake out. As was recently pointed out by rabid Leafs fan Down Goes Brown, this is impossible. In fact anyone who says they can do it and have an iota of accuracy is a filthy liar, I'm looking at you Pierre McGuire and Bob McKenzie. So instead of pretending that I have some sort of hidden hockey knowledge that no one else has, I'm going to give out my predictions of the final standings at the end of this year's regular season, and tell you right off the bat it's going to be completely made up. It may be ridiculously wrong by April, but I'm going to give reasons for my predictions that I think many people would agree with. I'll start with the Western conference to build the suspense as most people who read this will be Habs fans. So take that, I'm making you wait!

15th Hamilton Blackberries... err... I mean Phoenix Coyotes - Montreal fans know all too well how offseason distractions can mess with a season. What we dealt with last year however is absolutely nothing comparatively to what the young and fragile Coyotes team will be going through in the coming season. With ownership in flux and the stability of the franchise in severe doubt, it's going to be very tough on the roster that is almost entirely filled with young, inexperienced players. Shane Doan will likely be the rock that he always is, a lunch pale super star who does all the difficult things every night, but as we've seen for the last few years, he can't do it alone. The Phoenix organization isn't strong in any area, from management to coaching right down to player personnel. Young players like Mueller, Turris, Boedker, Yandle, Hanzal and more have been rushed forth into the league because of management's refusal to add established players worth their weight in paper, yes I said paper. Despite knowing the game better than possibly any player in history, Wayne Gretzky is not a good coach, he hasn't helped the development of his young players and at this stage in the Coyotes' rebuild that's about the only major thing that's important. Look for Phoenix or by then perhaps Hamilton to be drafting Taylor Hall.

14th Los Angeles Kings - The Kings have prospects out the rear, and they're certainly headed towards a competitive team in the future, however with a very young defense headed by Drew Doughty, this is not the year they'll break out and make the playoffs. Management went the wrong with this summer with Ryan Smyth, and although he will provide grit and leadership on the young team, his usefulness is in the playoffs, and in close games on a winning team. Jack Johnson has been an utter disappointment in the NHL, and with players like Drew Doughty, Thomas Hickey and Colton Teubert in the system on defense, he is either destined to be a 5th or 6th defenseman, or he will be moved soon. I don't believe he has it in him to become the force scouts once thought. Goaltending remains a major concern in LA, although Jonathan Quick seemed to grad the reins last year and play well, I find it hard to fully believe he'll capture that same magic in his sophomore season on an overall weak team. Up front there will be enough solid scoring to move up in the rankings, but only if Quick suddenly becomes Patrick Roy. Frolov, Kopitar, Smyth and Dustin Brown will be good enough to make games against LA a difficult endeavor, but they'll come out on the losing side anyway more often than not.

13th Nashville Predators - Once again the future is bright for this franchise, with solid blue chippers like Collin Wilson, Jonathan Blum and Ryan Ellis, this team is going to recuperate fast. However at the present time the Predators are a team with no scoring depth up front, and depending on a repeat season from Shea Weber, and a rebound season from Ryan Suter. Up front there's definite concern with with secondary scoring, as outside Jason Arnott and JP Dumont there's something to be desired. Legwand is still a third line center getting paid like a 1st liner, and Steve Sullivan is not the same player as he was before his back injury, and remains fragile despite having the heart of a lion. The defense has a solid top three in Weber, Suter and Hamhuis, but outside them it gets really thin really fast. Barry Trotz has all the respect in the world as a coach, as he's pulled some clunker Nashville teams into the playoffs, but his magic can't work every year, especially with this severely lacking forward cast. However the biggest problem I see for the Predators is in goal, even though it's purely speculation. Pekke Rinne is very likely to follow in the footsteps of the last new starting goaltenders in Predators history, and flop this season. If that happens, nothing Trotz can do will fix this team over 82 games.

12th Colorado Avalanche - The Aves will be improved this season with a better goaltending tandem that doesn't include Andrew Raycroft, and a new coaching staff as the (in my opinion) inept Tony Granato has been shown the door in favour of a coach who's worked his way up the minors, Joe Sacco. However this the positives mentioned comes some glaring problems; face of the franchise Joe Sakic has retired, and offensive depth is nowhere near what Colorado fans have been used to since the franchise was moved (*cough* stolen!) from Quebec. Wojtek Wolski and Marek Svatos haven't worked out as well as top 6 forwards as management expected, with the loss of Smyth and the aging of Hejduk there seems to be very little depth up front, especially if Stastny goes down to injury again this season. Stastny is a super star among perimeter players, so his point production may not get up to a point per game this season. The defense is solid in their own end this season, but the Avalanche are still lacking a true shooter to quarterback the powerplay. They went out and acquired Preissing and Quincey who are both passers, who along with Liles makes one wonder where they all fit. The defense is also a little slow, which will probably cause problems when the Avalanche play puck possession teams like Detroit, and the faster teams in the Eastern Conference. It's going to be another long and dreary season in the mile high city this year, and even the addition of Matt Duchene won't help much.

11th Minnesota Wild - The Wild waited until their biggest star was gone to finally style the team in a way that would suit his playing ability. Then to make matters worse they signed another injury prone star with less skill. If hockey history can teach anyone anything, we should all realize last year was an aberration for Martin Havlat, and he'll likely play far fewer games due to a variety of odd injuries. Mikko Koivu is emerging as an excellent player, but outside him and Havlat nearly everyone else at the forward position is disappointing. Wild management decided it was time to abandon defense first hockey and treat the fans to fire-wagon style, but they don't have the tools to pull it off. Brent Burns will likely rebound from a dismal season last year, and together with Marek Zidlicky will provide two good puck movers from the back end, but there aren't enough top tier or even second tier offensive talents on the team to get away with fire-wagon hockey and no be exposed. Niklas Backstrom will likely be left to stand on his head on many nights this season, and we'll see if he's really the goaltender many people believe him to be, or just an average NHL starter who benefited from Jacques Lemaire's brilliant defensive trap.

10th Edmonton Oilers - This season should be a make or break year for Edmonton. They haven't made the playoffs since they went to the cup finals against Carolina, and that is unacceptable in the so called city of champions. The young players absolutely must step up this year if there is any hope of making the playoffs, let alone making an impact. The offensive contingent of the defense is stellar, perhaps one of the best top four in the league, and if the young guns on the Oilers can keep up on the power play, Edmonton can do some major damage. With a coaching tandem of Pat Quinn and Tom Renney, there will be much less scapegoating in the media as we saw so much from the classless MacTavish in the last few seasons. The biggest uphill battle for edmonton this season is going to be insulating Khabibulin. Although he had a great year last year, he statistically has trouble adjusting to new teams, and let us not forget that Duncan Keith and Brent Seabrook also had career years and were stellar in their own zone. Edmonton doesn't have a legitimate shut down pairing, and that could expose Khabibulin as the season wears on. Edmonton also has no backup plan in goal, as it seemed clear from last season that Jeff Drouin-Deslauriers is not ready to be an impact goaltender in the NHL.

9th Columbus Bluejackets - A disappointment is inevitable this season for the Blue Jackets. Like Pascal Leclaire before him Steve Mason massively over-performed last season, and will not be able to repeat. There are too many ifs on this team for me to believe that they'll make it back into the playoffs. The future is still extremely good with a bona-fide superstar in Rick Nash, and some top tier centers finally coming up through the system in Brassard and Filatov, which Columbus has lacked since the franchise began. But on defense the team is thin at best, and incredibly weak at worst. Ken Hitchcock is a very good coach, but he has a bad habit of sitting back at the end of games where he has a small lead, which can implode a team quickly, which many Canadians saw first hand in the World Hockey Championships in Quebec City in 2008 (which I attended), as Russia stormed back to tie and eventually win the game. The Blue Jackets are going to be as good if not better as a team this coming season than they were last season, but improvements to other teams will leave them on the outside looking in.

8th Calgary Flames - The Flames have had an odd summer in my opinion. Calgary, who's struggled mightily to score on a consistent basis outside of Jarome Iginla, let Mike Cammalleri walk, signed no one to replace him and instead opted to improve their defense. The addition of Jay Bouwmeester is by no means a bad thing, in fact he's a great defenseman, but he's perhaps the most overrated defenseman in the NHL, largely due to TSN's hype machine Pierre McGuire. Miikka Kiprusoff is one player I tell anyone who will listen to stay away from in fantasy leagues unless your goalies only count wins. His goaltending statistics have gotten worse every year since he landed in Calgary. He consistently comes into camp overweight and chain smoking, not a guy I want to be the last line of defense on my team. He get way too much credit because he's an acrobatic goaltender with good recoverability, and he had a couple spectacular seasons in Calgary and one amazing playoff run. But lets look at his statistics to prove my point: 03-04 [GAA 1.69 - S% .933], 05-06 [GAA 2.07 - S% .923), 06-07 [GAA 2.46 - S% .916], 07-08 [GAA 2.69 - S% .906], 08-09 [GAA 2.84 - S% .903]. This is a massive problem for a competitive team, and if you think the Flames don't know, you're out to lunch, there was a reason they bolstered their defensive corps. I still think the Flames will make the playoffs this year, because new coach Brent Sutter is an excellent motivator, and he'll get the best out of most of the players, but don't expect anything from Calgary in the post season, they're destined to continue the pathetic continual first round knock out. On a side note however, the Flames organization shows some massive class by inviting recently reinstated Theoren Fleury to training camp. Fleury has been a troubled case the last 10-12 years or so, but he's battled through adversity his whole life, and I'm sure he'll find a way back into the NHL.

7th St. Louis Blues - These guys impressed me last season. A young team with grit coming out their ears and talent oozing from every pore. With a healthy Paul Kariya back in a contract year, they'll likely get some great scoring out of him. Erik Johnson is also healthy this season, and hopefully won't be rolling any more golf carts. Johnson was extremely solid in his rookie season with a bullet from the point and should be at least as good this season. His potential has probably been hampered a fair bit, and he won't be nearly as good as if he'd been playing last season, but either way he's a more than solid addition to the roster. The team is still young and at this point seems to be stocked full of second line talent, so I don't expect them to challenge for the division, but they'll be solid. The question mark here for me is goaltending. Chris Mason was spectacular down the stretch for the Blues, and aside from a weak goal in overtime of an elimination game, he was even better in the playoffs. But Mason has done this before with Nashville, and the next season he was terrible. I don't know if Mason can duplicate his performance, and there isn't much for depth in the goaltending position in St. Louis as Ty Conklin is just not a starting goaltender.

6th Dallas Stars - The equation for Dallas' resurgence this year is extremely simple, no Sean Avery and a healthy Brendan Morrow makes this team jump up considerably. Dallas played very good hockey almost as soon as Avery was sent off to the glue factory. Marty Turco is a better goaltender than he was last season, and with more chemistry throughout the lines he'll have less to deal with. The young guns on the team should take a step forward this year in consistency and take pressure off the aging Modano. The only major problem I see is the defence is either very young or aging (assuming Zubov returns). Stephane Robidas is a journeyman and works his tail off every night, but he can't be counted on to have as good of a season this coming year as last. Another major reason for a jump in performance this year for the Stars is as a possibly last hurrah for Mike Modano. His contract is up and he's no longer a top 6 player in spite of his foot speed. Zubov and Lehtinen are also near the end of their usefulness as NHL players, so it may be an extremely motivated Stars roster to do some damage in this one season.

5th Detroit Red Wings - Yes, I know. How dare I place the mighty Red Wings so far down the standings, but every giant must eventually fall. Ken Holland is a genius, but not even he could hold together the powerhouse team that Detroit has had the last 2 seasons. Hudler, Hossa, Kopecky and Conklin have left, and Detroit's depth has been severely damaged. Up front they still have Datsyuk, Zetterberg, Franzen, Filppula and Cleary on long term contracts, but outside that and unlike last season there isn't much to be excited about. Tomas Holmstrom's back is destroyed, he's no longer an affective top 6 player. Kris Draper's speed and durability is wearing down as he gets older. Patrick Eaves, Todd Bertuzzi and Jason Williams are desperation moves and stop gap measures. None of the three represent anything close to the players that Detroit couldn't re-sign in the off season. In goal they're offering Dan Cloutier of all people a try out instead of promoting Jimmy Howard, which I imagine is a bit of a smack in the face to poor howard, who's been patiently waiting out his time in the minors. Dan Cloutier, despite Detroit's amazing coaching and beyond stellar defense is not an adequate back up for an aging Chris Osgood, who will once again likely only show up for the playoffs. To couple with the softening of Detroit's hold on the Western conference, the Central division has gotten much stronger. St. Louis, Chicago and Columbus are no longer instant wins, in fact they're now very strong teams. Nashville has taken a step down, but they're still very tough to play against. The cake walk is over for Detroit, and after long playoff runs for three seasons straight the veterans are going to get tired this season.

4th San Jose Sharks - A chronic playoff disappointment and regular season powerhouse, nothing has really changed this off season, at least for the better. Christian Ehrhoff and Brad Lukowich were traded away for spare parts and no name prospects, Ehrhoff being the bigger loss by a long shot. The top end defense on the Sharks is still solid with Boyle, Blake and Vlasic, however losing Ehrhoff is nothing to scoff at. He's an excellent defenseman who was young and efficient. Up front San Jose is basically the exact same, losing Moen to free agency, but the scoring lines shouldn't be overly affected. San Jose will still be a dominant regular season team, although according to Coach McLellan the power play is changing strategies. Last season the Sharks' power play was focused on the talent of Blake and Boyle running the play from the points, this season the plan is to shift the focus back to Joe Thornton controlling the play from the corners and behind the net, which should see a marked increase in his point production from assists. Evgeni Nabokov will likely continue his great GAA, passable S% and excellent wins total, but anyone who's watched any hockey lately could tell you that. I wish there was more to say about the Sharks and where they'll end up this season, but they just aren't an interesting regular season team. Are they dominant? Yes, but they're boring, and massive choke artists.

3rd Chicago Blackhawks - The Hawks are poised to do damage this season. With the improvements they made during the off season I'm tempted to put them even higher than 3rd, but they're in the toughest division in the west now. There are a lot of people that think Cristobal Huet isn't good enough to be a starting goaltender in the NHL, let alone on a contending team, but any Montreal fan will tell you different. Huet had a difficult time adjusting to the Blackhawks' system last year, but he showed in his brief playoff appearance that he's ready to help Chicago out. His performance in the last game against Detroit was perhaps the best single game by any goaltender in last year's post season. Is he overpaid? Yes, but so was Khabibulin last season, and I didn't hear many Chicago fans complaining. The defense is filled with rising stars in Barker, Keith and Seabrook along with offensive threat and defensive liability Brian Campbell. They also have a few second tier guys who are very solid in Brent Sopel, Aaron Johnson and Niklas Hjalmarsson. Top to bottom it's a very good defensive corps. At forward Chicago also has a glutton of ridiculously good young guys in Toews, Kane, Versteeg, Sharp, Bolland, Byfuglien and holy crap do they have more after that? Add free agents Hossa, Kopecky and Madden and the forward corps is insanely deep. Hossa will be out for almost half of the season, but when he comes back it just makes the Hawks much more dangerous. The biggest problem with this team is that it's become a rush, Dale Tallon, although deserving of credit for turning a joke of a team into a resurgent powerhouse, he's handed out long term big money contracts to whoever asks for them, and Chicago is stuck between a rock and a hard place. Next season Chicago will have at least 10 million to spend under the cap, and they have to re-sign new faces of the franchise Kane and Toews not to mention #1 defenseman Duncan Keith. Those are just the superstars that Chicago can't afford to let go, but one of them is probably going to move on. The Brian Campbell deal is looking worse by the minute, and it makes this a make or break season for Chicago, so expect a motivated club.

2nd Vancouver Canucks - Forward depth seems to be about the same this season, although Sundin is not likely to be back. Aside from that I don't expect Kesler or Burrows to repeat their seasons statistically, but Vancouver won't have as much of a tough time scoring due to a much better defensive corps offensively, and an increased power play efficiency. Ehrhoff and Schneider coming in to join Edler, Salo and Bieksa gives the Canucks 5 competent to really good offensive threats from the back end. Although I guess it's really 4 when taking into account that Salo will likely spend most of the year as usual on the injured list. With a better blue line manning the power play I'm expecting the production of the Sedin twins to go up to career high levels to go with their big new contracts. The pressure is on Henrik and Daniel this year, and it's time for them to live up to it. They proved last year that they could finally contribute in the playoffs, but they fell asleep a bit in the second round against a young Blackhawks team that Vancouver should have beaten. Vancouver is also going to benefit this year from the weakest North West division in the last 5-6 years at the very least. They're the only team in the division that has a chance to get out of the first round. The biggest reason for me placing Vancouver so high in the standings however is just a single person, Roberto Luongo. Last season he was injured for a good chunk of the season and the Canucks weren't even close to a playoff team without him, but this year I'm expecting he won't be so unlucky to suffer a massive injury. Last year Luongo was embarrassed in his last game. Lit up by Chicago in an elimination game, he was in tears afterwards during post game interviews after feeling he'd let his team down almost single handedly. Roberto Luongo is a very competitive person, and he doesn't like being embarrassed like that, he's going to come back on a mission this year. My fearless prediction is that he runs away with the Vezina by a mile.

1st Anaheim Ducks - I'm sure many are surprised by this placement, and it's tough to justify with the loss of Pronger and Beauchemin in the Western conference where defense is the rule. However the additions in Anaheim this summer outweigh the losses in my opinion, because Anaheim has changed it's culture completely with a couple fell swoops. The Ducks happen to have two excellent goaltenders, and I don't believe for a second that Giguere is done as a goaltending in Anaheim. He and Hiller will likely split the games and the hot hand will get the starts and be ridden into the playoffs. The defense still has the ever efficient and smooth hands of Scott Niedermayer, and Ryan Whitney will continue to develop along the same path that he had in Pittsburgh, this injury plagued, sub par season will be an aberration for him. Outside of the top two the defense is no longer elite, but with the two stellar goaltenders as last line of defense, and one of the best top two lines in the league, it doesn't need to be. In a defense first conference the Ducks are going to be offensive juggernauts with Getzlaf, Ryan, and Perry on one line, Koivu, Selanne and Lupul on another. Lupul played his best hockey under Randy Carlyle, and he'll likely have a career year there with Koivu and Selanne's chemistry rubbing off. Koivu was written off as "too old" and "fading" in Montreal this summer, but only the most ignorant hockey fan can look at his statistics and believe this. Koivu has always been injury prone, but despite those injuries he still put up solid numbers last year in a diminished role. Playing with Selanne will likely re-energize Koivu along with improve Selanne's goal scoring from last years downturn. This second line is bordering on elite, and the first line is undoubtedly elite. A running theme in this prediction has been mentioning motivation as a big reason for success, and Selanne's announced retirement after this season will likely light a fire under the Ducks entire line up. This is likely also the reason why Koivu signed a one year contract, as he's a family man and probably wouldn't want to move every year unless it was for a good reason. The Ducks have a very legitimate shot at the cup this year, I would not be surprised at all to see them take it for the second time in 4 years.

So there you have it, predictions that probably won't come true but surely could. Next up is the East!

What Is The Hart Trophy?

2009-08-21T16:31:00.007-04:00

Judging by the past few recipients of the the award, it seems like a fair question to me. According to the NHL, the Hart Memorial Trophy is awarded to the player "adjudged to be most valuable to his team" during the NHL's Regular season. This is a fairly simple explanation, but is that explanation being followed today? I would argue that the award has become just an echo of the Lester B. Pearson Award, which is given to the player judged to be the most outstanding among his peers, by his peers. The Pearson is a very simple award to vote for, you just vote for who you think the best player in the league was during the applicable regular season, however the Hart requires a much more delicate decision. You're voting on who you think was the most valuable player to their own team, regardless of which team it is. This means that in many cases, the best player in the league will not win the award.

For the last six seasons the player who wins the Hart has been either the NHL's leading goal scorer, or leading point producer. On the surface you may think that this makes sense, as the player who plays the best is obviously very valuable to his team, but this doesn't make them the MOST valuable. For an example of when the trophy is awarded correctly we need to look back all the way to the 2001-02 season, when Jose Theodore took home the trophy. Many thought that Jarome Iginla was robbed of the award because Iginla had broken the 50 goal barrier and was the league's most dominant scorer, however the Calgary Flames didn't even make the playoffs. On his team he easily stood out in terms of talent, but his play failed in an attempt to bring the team over the playoff hurdle. Jose Theodore however was playing for a Montreal Canadiens team that was decimated by the diagnosis of captain Saku Koivu with non-Hodgkin lymphoma, and on an incredibly weak team in terms of skill and scoring, losing a player of his calibre led most to predict the team would finish last in the eastern conference. On the shoulders of Theodore's outstanding play, the Canadiens scraped and clawed into the post season, and managed to upset the heavily favoured 1st place Boston Bruins. Without the play of Theodore, the Canadiens were a bottom dwelling team, whereas without Iginla, the Flames didn't have much further to drop. This is a great example of how the trophy SHOULD be awarded.

RECENT HISTORY

It's very clear that in the last two seasons Alexander Ovechkin has been the best player during the regular season. Seasons of 65 and 56 goals respectively, are something to be brag about and be proud of, and during these seasons he was easily the most valuable player on his team, but was he more valuable to his team than other players were to their teams? I don't think so. What needs to be observed when speaking of most valuable players, is what single player contributes most to the success of his team. Washington without Alex Ovechkin would definitely not have made the playoffs in 2007-08, but ask yourself who would finish higher in the standings that year, Washington without Ovechkin, or the New York Rangers without Henrik Lundqvist. Unlike JS Giguere in Anaheim and Martin Brodeur in New Jersey, Lundqvist was largely on his own defensively for most of the season. Washington still had veteran scorers and young stars to rely on to score, and although they wouldn't have made the playoffs I doubt they'd have missed by much. The Rangers however had an anemic offense, and a lackluster defense at best. Yet through his play the Rangers made it into the playoffs in a healthy 5th place, and promptly upset the favoured Devils.

In 2008-09 Ovechkin's production took a step down, and his supporting cast took a step up in a big way the Alex Semin and Mike Green emerging, yet he won once again. He was once again the most dominant offensive player in the league, although Evgeni Malkin and Sidney Crosby were close behind, but again in terms of value he is clearly not the most deserving of recognition. When Roberto Luongo was injured in Vancouver, that team was entirely uncompetitive. His impact can be seen clearly in the wins column as Vancouver only mustered 12 wins in 28 games without his services (42.9% win percentage), versus 33 wins in 54 contests (61.1% win percentage) despite playing injured in many games. This would bring Vancouver from a top seeded team in their division to 13th or lower in the conference. The same platitudes can be attributed to the Canadiens' Andrei Markov, who can easily be considered the most valuable defenseman to his team in the NHL. Despite the various struggles the Canadiens had this past season, Markov remained consistent and even acheived a career high in points and assists. Running the Canadiens' power play and penalty kill, Markov is a calming force that I believe resembles Niklas Lidstrom of the Detroit Red Wings. When Markov succumbed to injury in the latter part of the season, despite the Canadiens playing their best hockey of the season, they suffered 7 straight losses to end the season and playoffs. The power play became completely ineffective, and the transition game of the Canadiens withered and died.

These two players are just examples off the top of my head of players who were more important to their team than Ovechkin was to the Capitals in the last two years. I could go back further and elaborate on how Crosby and Thornton were also not as valuable as others but I'd rather not be redundant. If by any chance those with votes when it comes to the Hart Memorial Trophy come by this blog, PLEASE take heed and vote properly. I for one, am sick of having a duplicate award of the Pearson just with different voting parties. There's a big difference between the two and you need to honour it.

The Kovalev Conundrum...

2009-08-18T00:16:00.007-04:00

Will He Be Missed?

Although my biggest regret about the off season purge this summer is the loss of Saku Koivu, all I hear about from the Habs faithful is the loss of L'Artiste. Kovalev was undoubtedly the master of the Bell Centre crowd, and one of the more exciting players to watch in the NHL. Alex is also possibly the most purely skilled player I've ever seen touch a puck that isn't named Mario. But is his departure really as big of a loss as so many Canadiens fans believe? I don't think so.

Nobody on the Canadiens this coming season has the same flair that Kovalev has in the offensive zone, however I think Andrei Kostitsyn and Mike Cammalleri together make up for it. Kovalev was a wonder to behold in the offensive zone, and after his stellar and consistent performance in 07-08 what Montreal fan could not love him? He always scored when it was needed, and with Plekanec and Andrei Kostitsyn formed one of the most dynamic lines in the league. But the line disappeared in the playoffs, and was blown up almost as soon as the last season started when the chemistry seemed to no longer be there. And then the Kovalev that most people knew his entire career came back to the Bell Centre this year. Frustrated and not scoring, trying to deke out 5 players on the opposing team by himself instead of using his linemates, floating for long stretches, and losing battles with defensemen on the half boards as he holds onto the puck too long and loses his passing and shooting lanes. From time to time scoring streaks occured and everyone jumped back on the Kovalev bandwagon, hoping it would last, but it never did. It's certainly not fair to blame Kovalev for this last season, but to ignore his part in it is a little ignorant.

Attitude is an important thing in a dressing room, and despite what many say, Kovalev is a hard person to be a teammate with. He's a loner, rarely talks, and always seems unsatisfied (not in the good, burning passion way). Alex was supposed to be a leader on this team last season, and instead he often shirked his responsibilities and played selfishly. At one point it got so bad that his friend and confidant GM Bob Gainey sat him for two games. His attitude during the season may not have had a negative effect, but it didn't show the leadership that was expected of him, and it certainly didn't help the situation.

In terms of talent on right wing, no one on the Canadiens can replace Kovalev outright. Brian Gionta will not be replacing Alex Kovalev. He won't be the same game changer Kovalev can be. But the operative word in that last statement is "can". Alex Kovalev can completely take over a game, unquestionably, but ask yourself honestly how often it actually happens? Yes he had one spectacular season in Montreal, but on average he only plays average. In fact as often as Kovalev wins a game he has a big part in losing it. Untimely penalties and selfishness with the puck are staples of his game, like it or not. Kovalev is a two way street in his play. While he won't outdo Alex in panache, Brian Gionta will bring a much more consistent game to Montreal's right wing. He will also play a better team game, and make his linemates better, instead of ignoring them when the games get big. In terms of offensive production, I'm guessing that Kovalev in Ottawa will outpace Gionta in both goals and points, but not by much. The main reason I say this is because I'm assuming Kovalev will play with Spezza, who is a top tier playmaker. But Kovalev is always a mystery, and I would rather have consistent, hard nosed scorers on my team instead of someone I constantly have to coddle in order to get performance. Will he be missed? By the season ticket holders, yes. By the team, not at all.

How Should He Be Remembered?

It's a good question, because it's not easy to answer. I will always remember Kovalev streaking into the offensive zone against the Ranger on February 19th, 2007, in the third period, completing the most impressive and largest comeback in franchise history. Probably the greatest game I've ever had the privilege to watch. And in that respect I'll remember him fondly. But that memory is always going to be bitter sweet, because in my eyes, Alex Kovalev is a traitor.

When players go to free agency, they can sign with whatever team they want, and I have no problem with that, but it was the way in which the Kovalev saga went down that bothered me so much. Perhaps it's foolish naivete, but when someone waxes poetic about how much they love a city, team and franchise, I tend to believe that they're serious. Reason being that there's no reason to be so insistent about something like this if you don't feel that way. All through the last couple seasons Alex felt the need to tell anyone who would listen that Montreal is the only place outside of Russia that he had any desire to play. Stating many times that he would play for far less money to stay here because he loved it so much. When the time came to sign a new contract, Kovalev was offered a raise despite his enigmatic and relatively poor season. Neither Kovalev or his agent ever contacted the Canadiens organization with a counter offer, or even a decline. After a brief period of silence and a fan rally in front of the Bell Centre calling for his return, it was announced that Alex had signed with a division rival in the Ottawa Senators for just 500k more per year than the Canadiens' offer.

Many people absolve Kovalev from blame for this incident, claiming that it was his agent that kept him in the dark, or that Gainey forced him to make a decision too quickly, and then spurned him with the signing of Brian Gionta. I'll tackle the first assumption first. If Kovalev was displeased with the job his agent had done, why hasn't he been fired? If Kovalev was so serious about how much he loved Montreal, would 1 million dollars less over 2 years really have hurt someone who's made approximately 42.636 million dollars (courtesy hockeyzoneplus and nhlnumbers) in his career? If Kovalev was intent on staying in Montreal, would he not have told his agent that his priority was destination and not money? I would think so. As for feeling spurned by the signing of Gionta, perhaps he was a little. But Bob Gainey made an offer to Kovalev before free agency started, and he told him that he wanted to hear back as soon as possible, meaning that if a decision wasn't made quickly or negotiations taken seriously, Gainey's hand would be forced and he would have to look elsewhere for a right winger. And even after Gionta was signed, does anyone really believe that Gainey wouldn't send D'agostini to the minors for a year to have Kovalev come back at a one year low salary? It's well known that Bob Gainey loves Kovalev, but apparently the feeling isn't mutual enough to not betray a friend. The bottom line about this summer is that if Alex Kovalev WANTED to be a Montreal Canadien, he would be. He spurned us, and not the other way around.

The other problem with remembering Kovalev in a positive light is where he chose to sign. There were are 25 teams in the NHL that aren't division rivals. None of those teams appealed to Alex? He had to realize that the way he left Montreal was a slap in the face, but signing just across the Quebec/Ontario border was the heavy handed back hand. I'm sure Alex will do his best to show Montreal fans what they're missing in his 3 visits to the Bell Centre this coming season, and he will most likely be cheered upon his return, but I'll be booing.

On the plus side, perhaps now Ottawa Senators games will be entertaining for once and I'll have a reason to watch Sportnet East in HD when the Habs aren't playing.

The New Team

2009-08-16T17:34:00.006-04:00

On June 30th of 2009 I was instantly horrified as I checked TSN.ca for my regular hockey fix during the lead up to the free agency period. Bob Gainey had just solidified the rumours that Saku Koivu's time in Montreal had come to an end as he made a trade for Scott Gomez from the New York Rangers. Not only was Gomez overpaid for about the same size and point totals as Koivu, but we gave up a solid player in Chris Higgins, and a blue chip prospect in Ryan McDonagh. Within 36 more hours the team was completely remade both on forward and on defense.

While I was extremely angry about the Gomez trade, as I really believed Higgins would be a perfect fit with Jacques Martin, and I loved the potential of McDonagh, I could not argue the effect Gomez had in bringing in at least one top flight player (Cammalleri), and another great complimentary forward (Gionta) to play with. On the day it happened several people panned the signing of Mike Cammalleri as far too expensive. How ridiculous! This guy had more goals than any other free agent on the market this year, more than the highly coveted Marion Hossa. As for Gionta, yes he's overpaid, but worth the risk if he can regain his magic chemistry with Gomez.

On defense Matheiu Schneider was replaced by the younger, and much more effective all around player Jaroslav Spacek. Hal Gill and Paul Mara were brought in to replace the outgoing Mike Komisarek, Francois Bouillon, Matheiu Dandenault and Patrice Brisebois. Clearly the loss of Komisarek, despite his poor play last season is a big blow defensively, however if Ryan O'Byrne can take a step forward in his development, I believe we've become much better defensively overall, especially with the increased size.

In just a couple short days many fans no longer recognized the team they cheered for, but is this really bad news? Of those that have left there are several I'll truly miss; Koivu can never be replaced as a tenacious leader and inspiring public figure. Tanguay was supposed to be the long awaited French Canadian first line player, and he was let go. Dandenault was mistreated but always played admirably when called upon, and I'll miss his speed beating icings several times a game. Chris Higgins seemed to finally be finding his game as a checking forward who could score in the clutch. Robert Lang was a breath of fresh air in the dressing room, and had a smile that could cheer up anyone, not to mention his clutch scoring and chemistry with the Kostitsyns. But in every one that's left, there's hope anew that this team can pick itself up, skate an a fresh sheet of ice and be successful.

THE OFFENSIVE LINES

The line combination possibilities is one of the main reasons I've gone from hopeless to excited about this upcoming season. Although a lot of people believe we're going to have a 'free agent first line with an average height of 5'9"', I don't think Jacques Martin would be so foolish to put all his new eggs in one basket and create a line that would be very vulnerable to big checking lines at even strength. On the powerplay that line will definitely see time together, but here's how I see the lines shaking out this season, with an explanation of why I think it'll work.

Line 1: Andrei Kostitsyn - Scott Gomez - Brian Gionta

Andrei lends size to this line that Cammalleri can't. Over the last two seasons we've seen flashes of brilliance from him in both offensive acumen and physical prowess. Putting him on this line forces him to be the big man on the ice and play physical. Gomez and Gionta don't shy away from the physical side of the game at all in their own right, and their grittiness will rub off on Andrei. Without Kovalev hogging the puck the entire time Andrei is on the ice, look for him to shoot much more, and convert on some slick passes from Gionta and Gomez.

Line 2: Mike Cammalleri - Tomas Plekanec - Sergei Kostitsyn/Matt D'agostini

This line gets a bit more complicated as I don't think Sergei or D'ags will be able to stay on this line all year. This isn't necessarily knocking either one, I just think that they both bring different things to the table. Sergei will most likely start the year on this line as the main playmaker for Mike and Tomas. This line will not only have some offensive punch with Cammalleri (probably our best forward now), the sure 20+ goals from Plekanec and the great passes from Sergei, it also has a solid defensive presence with Plekanec and Sergei both able to kill penalties. This is going to allow Cammalleri to take more risks offensively, and it'll pay dividends for the team as a whole. In games where we need to score more effectively however, I believe Martin will shift the playmaking responsibility to Plekanec and put D'agostini on the line with his quick wrist shot and slightly superior foot speed.

Line 3: Guillaume Latendresse - Maxim Lapierre - Matt D'agostini/Sergei Kostitsyn

I think it would be obvious to most people by now that Lapierre brings out the best in Latendresse, and I would count Jacques Martin in this group. Many people are disappointed in the development or lack thereof in Latendresse, and sad to see him languishing on the 3rd line. I like to think of it differently however. On most teams in the NHL the 3rd line is usually the checking line, counted on for defence and grit, and maybe to pot a few goals now and then, while the 4th line is basically pluggers to bang and crash and create energy. Here in Montreal we have the good fortune to have a 3rd line that can not only be defensively responsibly, but be more of a 2a line than a 3rd line. Lapierre has playmaking ability and skill to a much higher degree than most 3rd line centers, while Latendresse and D'agostini are much better scorers than most 3rd line players. Playing on this line will help D'ags develop his defensive play (and maybe learn French!) while accenting the offensive side of this line. Another positive of this set up is that with D'ags as the sniper on the line, Latendresse will be forced to play the way he should play, tough and big in front of the net. Expect some garbage goals from those soft hands Guillaume has. When D'ags is pushed up to the 2nd line, Sergei's playmaking ability will no doubt improve the goalscoring of Latendresse substantially, while creating a better defensive unit. Both variations have upsides that Martin will love to play with.

Line 4: Travis Moen - Kyle Chipchura - Glen Metropolit

Here's where I think some people will be surprised, because I think it's about time Kyle Chipchura made this roster. His size makes him a far better option at center than Metropolit, and he's ready for this move. Metropolit has played some wing during his life, and although it's not his natural position I'll assume that he and Kyle will switch back and forth during the season until Chipchura improves his face-off percentage. All three players are penalty killers and solid defensive players. Moen and Chipchura will crash and bang and create space for the smaller and slightly more skilled Metropolit. This line is no offensive juggernaut, however it is more solid than many other NHL teams can muster. This will be a line of clutch goals, toughness and great defensive plays.

Extras:

Georges Laraque - will be sitting on the sidelines for most of this season if he isn't bought out. He'll replace Metropolit or Chipchura in the lineup for games against rougher teams like Philadelphia or Boston most likely, but with Moen now a Canadien his usefulness is questionable. Moen can do most things Laraque can do, only he can skate and make plays much better.

Max Pacioretty - will be in Hamilton for as much time as possible barring injuries. With Cammalleri and Andrei Kostitsyn at left wing there's no room for him on the top two lines, which is where he would have to play to develop the skills Montreal wants him to develop. In Hamilton he'll be the top offensive guy on the team on Ben Maxwell's wing, where he will hopefully dominate and gain the scoring touch many hockey pundits expect.

Greg Stewart - will most likely stay in Hamilton most of the year, with the possibility of a short term call up due to roster injuries early in the year, or a permanent call up half way through as his waiver eligibility runs out. Stewart is tough as nails and willing to stick up for his teammates, but his services won't be needed in the bigs unless Travis Moen gets injured at left wing.

THE DEFENSIVE LINES

1st Pairing: Andrei Markov - Paul Mara

A lot of people I've talked to have Jaroslav Spacek on the top pairing with Markov, but if I'm Martin I don't want my two best puck movers on the top pairing to leave my 2nd scoring line with less ability to move the puck up ice. Paul Mara provides some grit in the defensive zone that Markov is used to from playing with Komisarek so long, but he provides a much improved level of offensive awareness, an ability to move the puck up ice to give Markov a break once in awhile, and a fairly decent shot when in the offensive zone for Markov to set up. I wouldn't expect more than 8 goals from Mara this year, but that's still a vast upgrade offensively on Komisarek's typical shot from the point that gets blocked and bounces behind him creating a breakaway for the other team.

2nd Pairing: Roman Hamrlik - Jaroslav Spacek

I have two reasons for having these two together. The first being they are Montreal's 2nd and 3rd best puck moving defensemen respectively, but more importantly they are familiar, and have played dominantly with each other on the Czech Republic's national team. Spacek's consistency and on ice vision will provide Hamrlik with a more experienced partner than he's had since he came to Montreal, and hopefully this will allow Hamrlik to play in a similar manner as he did in 07-08 when he was a hitting and shot blocking machine. The offensive responsibility will largely be taken off his shoulders and his minutes can probably drop a little as well. If these two recapture their former chemistry, expect some excellent break outs by the second line, and solid defensive play from both players.

3rd Pairing: Josh Gorges - Hal Gill

Hal Gill may not be the best skater in the world, but he has the wing span of a spruce goose, and a pretty good stick to go with it. When he's on his game he can check ferociously and his size rivals Zdeno Chara. The added depth on the top two pairings allows Josh Gorges to take a slightly smaller role to which he's more suited. Instead of 20-22 minutes a game he'll be playing 15-18, which will allow him to be more focused and connect outlet passes far more frequently, and join more rushes. Expect a marked increase in point production again this year from Josh. As for chemistry with Gill, I think that remains to be seen. While Gill is a very strong giant Pylon, Gorges is a tough for his size and speedy player. It sounds good on paper, but this is the pairing I'm most unsure of.

Extras:

Ryan O'Byrne - will spend all year with Montreal. I expect him to make a big leap this year with the guidance of Jacques Martin. He'll be a healthy scratch for many games, but he'll draw in his fair share with customary injuries and slumps. Martin happens to have a great track record in developing oversized defensemen, ever heard of Zdeno Chara?

Yannick Weber - will start the year in Hamilton I'm guessing. He'll be the priority call up if any injuries occur, especially to offensive minded defensemen. His experience in last years playoffs suggest he already has the skill to break into the NHL, but the spots are filled for now. He'll dominate again at the AHL level as a sophomore and make the most of his chances when in the NHL.

P.K. Subban - will most likely spend the whole year in Hamilton. Weber has the priority call up because of experience as a pro, so it would have to be a decimated defensive corps before he gets called up I expect. He'll make a big impact in Hamilton, playing with Weber on the powerplay will be a force to be reckoned with.

GOALTENDING

Carey Price - mark my words will play better than ever this season. With a much improved defensive corps in front of him, a better system coach behind him, and a much needed change in goaltending coach, Carey will be a man on a mission and ready for anything. Look for him to be better conditioned this season and in all likelihood not miss near as much time with injury.

Jaroslav Halak - Jaro will continue to be himself, making steady improvement in his play while quietly challenging and pushing Price to be better. There's no reason to think these two won't get the job done in a big way this year.

My Fandom

2009-08-16T02:21:00.010-04:00

Born and raised until the age of 11 in Saskatchewan, I didn't have a hometown team, but from the first game I ever watched I knew there was only one team worth my lifelong admiration, and that was the Montreal Canadiens. From the moment I saw them take the ice with the famous CH on their chests I knew there could be no other. And to make a gut feeling turn into an ironclad knowledge, all I had to do was look at the net. I couldn't believe how cool these guys looked while stopping the puck, and for some reason ours was so much better than the other team's. He covered the bottom of the net much better, and could drop to his knees and get back to his feet in a split second. Fast, agile, competitive, and young, I'd just been introduced to who would become my favourite player in NHL history, Patrick Roy. In a few short years I watched my idol have (in my opinion) the most dominant playoff performance in the history of hockey en route to his second Conn Smythe Trophy, and more importantly second Stanley Cup. Things wouldn't last forever in Montreal for Patrick, as his fiery temper and a stressed relationship with a rookie coach spelled his end for the Habs during a game against Detroit. When he was traded to Colorado in a move that began Rejean Houle's decimation of the franchise a part of my heart was also shipped to Colorado, but I could never turn my back on the Canadiens. And it was a hard time to be a Canadiens fan, as Houle's disastrous trades of marquee players for bags of pucks drove the team to all new lows.

As my family moved to Alberta in 1998 it seemed that both geographically and emotionally I was moving away from the Canadiens, as disappointment year after year combined with the success of my secondary team in Colorado distracted from my lifelong obsession with the Canadiens. However something was about to change in Montreal, and as Houle was let go, there seemed to be a renewed hope in achieving the dominance of the past. Saku Koivu was an inspirational player to watch; small and talented, but vicious as a bulldog and completely fearless. His diagnosis and subsequent recovery from cancer was inspiring to any true hockey fan, and it inspired an extremely unlikely playoff upset of perpetual rival Boston. The passion had been permanently re-ignited. Andre Savard began to draft much more carefully than Houle, and there were all of a sudden some prospects on the farm. Soon after a legend was hired, and Bob Gainey came to much adoration with a promise to make the Canadiens competitive once more.

In 2005 I graduated from high school, and by complete coincidence my girlfriend of two years wanted to go to school in Montreal as her sister had done. We both agreed to go to university in the mecca of hockey, and it was a match made in heaven. Arriving in late August I made a bee line to the old Forum, I couldn't get enough of the history, and soon after I managed to get to my first ever Canadiens game. What else could I see but a game against the Bruins to initiate myself? October 18th, 2005 I saw Montreal battle back twice to take the win, their first at home of the season. And like a child on christmas morning I was beaming for days. The atmosphere of the Bell Centre was more than anyone could imagine unless they'd been there before.

Now the team that Gainey built has been blown up after a failure of a centennial season, and I get to fall in love with the team all over again as they grow and hopefully prosper in this new incarnation. I hope those who drop by here enjoy this blog as I will comment on the affairs of Les Glorieux.

Here's to the Habs!